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J Clin Periodontol. 1999 Jun;26(6):374-80.

Longitudinal study of predictive factors for periodontal disease and tooth loss.

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Periodontal Disease Research Center, Department of Oral Biology, School of Dental Medicine, State University of New York at Buffalo, 14214, USA.


Longitudinal assessment of risk factors for periodontal disease is necessary to provide evidence that a putative risk factor or risk indicator is a true risk factor. The purpose of the present study was to explore longitudinally a variety of markers as possible periodontal risk factors in subjects with little or no periodontal disease at baseline. 415 subjects with mild or little periodontal disease were examined: medical and dental history; socioeconomic profile, clinical measurements, microbial samples and radiographic assessment of bone height were performed at baseline, and at a follow-up examination 2 to 5 years later. Mean probing pocket depth (PPD) at baseline was 1.99+/-0.37 mm while mean overall change was 0.1 mm which amounts to an annual rate of 0.04 mm. Overall mean clinical attachment level (1.75+/-0.6 mm) at baseline resulted in mean attachment change of 0.28 mm (0.12 mm annually). Alveolar crestal height (ACH) at baseline (mean 2.05+/-0.85 mm) resulting in a mean net loss of 0.1 mm. Approximately 10% of all sites presented for the second visit with attachment loss exceeding the threshold (4.4% annually), while only 2.2% of all sites exhibited attachment gain (0.88% annually). Older individuals exhibited greater mean bone loss but the least amount of attachment loss. Current smokers exhibited greater disease progression compared to non-smokers. Tooth morbidity (0.17 teeth/patient/year) was associated with greater baseline CAL and ACH loss, and an assortment of systemic conditions. Subjects who harbored Bacteroides forsythus (Bf) at baseline had greater loss in ACH; likewise, these subjects experienced greater proportions of losing sites and twice as much tooth mortality compared to Bf-negative patients. Baseline clinical parameters correlated strongly with the outcome, i.e., subjects with deeper mean pocket depth at baseline exhibited greater increase in pocket depth overtime; while subjects with greater attachment loss at baseline exhibited greater attachment loss between the 1st and 2nd visits.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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