
Economic gains resulting from the reduction in children's exposure to lead in the United States.
Abstract
In this study we quantify economic benefits from projected improvements in worker productivity resulting from the reduction in children's exposure to lead in the United States since 1976. We calculated the decline in blood lead levels (BLLs) from 1976 to 1999 on the basis of nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data collected during 1976 through 1980, 1991 through 1994, and 1999. The decline in mean BLL in 1- to 5-year-old U.S. children from 1976-1980 to 1991-1994 was 12.3 microg/dL, and the estimated decline from 1976 to 1999 was 15.1 microg/dL. We assumed the change in cognitive ability resulting from declines in BLLs, on the basis of published meta-analyses, to be between 0.185 and 0.323 IQ points for each 1 g/dL blood lead concentration. These calculations imply that, because of falling BLLs, U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1990s had IQs that were, on average, 2.2-4.7 points higher than they would have been if they had the blood lead distribution observed among U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1970s. We estimated that each IQ point raises worker productivity 1.76-2.38%. With discounted lifetime earnings of $723,300 for each 2-year-old in 2000 dollars, the estimated economic benefit for each year's cohort of 3.8 million 2-year-old children ranges from $110 billion to $319 billion.
Full Text
Selected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Pirkle JL, Brody DJ, Gunter EW, Kramer RA, Paschal DC, Flegal KM, Matte TD. The decline in blood lead levels in the United States. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) JAMA. 1994 Jul 27;272(4):284–291. [PubMed]
- Pirkle JL, Kaufmann RB, Brody DJ, Hickman T, Gunter EW, Paschal DC. Exposure of the U.S. population to lead, 1991-1994. Environ Health Perspect. 1998 Nov;106(11):745–750. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
- Bellinger DC. Interpreting the literature on lead and child development: the neglected role of the "experimental system". Neurotoxicol Teratol. 1995 May-Jun;17(3):201–212. [PubMed]
- Soong WT, Chao KY, Jang CS, Wang JD. Long-term effect of increased lead absorption on intelligence of children. Arch Environ Health. 1999 Jul-Aug;54(4):297–301. [PubMed]
- Schwartz J. Societal benefits of reducing lead exposure. Environ Res. 1994 Jul;66(1):105–124. [PubMed]
- Annest JL, Pirkle JL, Makuc D, Neese JW, Bayse DD, Kovar MG. Chronological trend in blood lead levels between 1976 and 1980. N Engl J Med. 1983 Jun 9;308(23):1373–1377. [PubMed]
- Schwartz J. Low-level lead exposure and children's IQ: a meta-analysis and search for a threshold. Environ Res. 1994 Apr;65(1):42–55. [PubMed]
- Pocock SJ, Smith M, Baghurst P. Environmental lead and children's intelligence: a systematic review of the epidemiological evidence. BMJ. 1994 Nov 5;309(6963):1189–1197. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
- Wasserman GA, Liu X, Lolacono NJ, Factor-Litvak P, Kline JK, Popovac D, Morina N, Musabegovic A, Vrenezi N, Capuni-Paracka S, et al. Lead exposure and intelligence in 7-year-old children: the Yugoslavia Prospective Study. Environ Health Perspect. 1997 Sep;105(9):956–962. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
- Lanphear BP, Dietrich K, Auinger P, Cox C. Cognitive deficits associated with blood lead concentrations <10 microg/dL in US children and adolescents. Public Health Rep. 2000 Nov-Dec;115(6):521–529. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
- Tong S, Baghurst P, McMichael A, Sawyer M, Mudge J. Lifetime exposure to environmental lead and children's intelligence at 11-13 years: the Port Pirie cohort study. BMJ. 1996 Jun 22;312(7046):1569–1575. [PMC free article] [PubMed]
- Schwartz J. Beyond LOEL's, p values, and vote counting: methods for looking at the shapes and strengths of associations. Neurotoxicology. 1993 Summer-Fall;14(2-3):237–246. [PubMed]
- Bellinger DC, Stiles KM, Needleman HL. Low-level lead exposure, intelligence and academic achievement: a long-term follow-up study. Pediatrics. 1992 Dec;90(6):855–861. [PubMed]
- Rosenzweig MR, Evenson R. Fertility, schooling, and the economic contribution of children in rural India: an econometric analysis. Econometrica. 1977;45(5):1–1,079. [PubMed]
- Needleman HL, Schell A, Bellinger D, Leviton A, Allred EN. The long-term effects of exposure to low doses of lead in childhood. An 11-year follow-up report. N Engl J Med. 1990 Jan 11;322(2):83–88. [PubMed]
- Salkever DS. Updated estimates of earnings benefits from reduced exposure of children to environmental lead. Environ Res. 1995 Jul;70(1):1–6. [PubMed]
- Nevin R. How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy. Environ Res. 2000 May;83(1):1–22. [PubMed]