A Nomogram to Predict Nodal Response after Induction Chemotherapy for Hypopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background: For hypopharyngeal carcinoma, metastatic neck nodes with a low response to induction chemotherapy (ICT) should not be managed with concomitant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), and the prediction of chemosensitivity before ICT could prevent adverse events from occurring during chemotherapy. In this study, we developed a nomogram to predict the regional response to ICT.

Methods: A total of 153 hypopharyngeal carcinoma patients with regional metastasis treated with ICT in our institution from January 2010 to September 2020 were retrospectively studied. According to ICT response evaluated by RECIST 1.1, patients were divided into chemo-insensitive (PR < 70%/SD/PD) (group 1) and chemosensitive (CR/PR ≥ 70%) (group 2) groups. Patients' clinical, image, and hematologic data before ICT were collected. The nomogram was built based on multivariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression and was evaluated from the aspects of discrimination and calibration.

Results: A nomogram based on five critical predictors, namely, tumor differentiation degree, T classification, metastatic lymph node size, number of lymph node metastases, and cervical nodal necrosis, was developed. The areas under the curve (AUC) values were 0.76 and 0.70 after adjusting the results using bootstrap methods. The calibration curve showed relatively good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities.

Conclusions: Our nomogram yielded good accuracy in predicting the regional ICT response and will be a useful tool to assist clinicians in decision making.

Level of evidence: 4 Laryngoscope, 133:849-855, 2023.