An integrated data framework for policy guidance during the coronavirus pandemic: Towards real-time decision support for economic policymakers

PLoS One. 2022 Feb 14;17(2):e0263898. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263898. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Usually, official and survey-based statistics guide policymakers in their choice of response instruments to economic crises. However, in an early phase, after a sudden and unforeseen shock has caused unexpected and fast-changing dynamics, data from traditional statistics are only available with non-negligible time delays. This leaves policymakers uncertain about how to most effectively manage their economic countermeasures to support businesses, especially when they need to respond quickly, as in the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this information deficit, we propose a framework that guided policymakers throughout all stages of this unforeseen economic shock by providing timely and reliable sources of firm-level data as a basis to make informed policy decisions. We do so by combining early stage 'ad hoc' web analyses, 'follow-up' business surveys, and 'retrospective' analyses of firm outcomes. A particular focus of our framework is on assessing the early effects of the pandemic, using highly dynamic and large-scale data from corporate websites. Most notably, we show that textual references to the coronavirus pandemic published on a large sample of company websites and state-of-the-art text analysis methods allowed to capture the heterogeneity of the pandemic's effects at a very early stage and entailed a leading indication on later movements in firm credit ratings. While the proposed framework is specific to the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of results obtained from real-time online sources in the design of subsequent surveys and their value in forecasting firm-level outcomes typically targeted by policy measures, is a first step towards a more timely and holistic approach for policy guidance in times of economic shocks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bankruptcy
  • COVID-19 / economics*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • Communication
  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical*
  • Economics*
  • Humans
  • Internet
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Surveys and Questionnaires

Grants and funding

The study extends upon a project analyzing the economic effects on SMEs in the COVID-19 crisis which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (https://www.bmwi.de) under the grant agreement No 15/20 (GL). Funding covered the collection of webdata and the analysis of both webdata and survey data. Moreover, the project received support by the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts of the government of Baden Wuerttemberg (https://mwk.baden-wuerttemberg.de) as part of its Science Data Center program under the grant “Business and Economic Research Data Center (BERD)” (GL). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.