Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 10;13(2):e1005382. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382. eCollection 2017 Feb.

Abstract

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002-2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1-5 early long-range transmission events, half of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty had particularly localized modes of spread, suggesting that novel strains may spread in a more localized fashion than previously anticipated.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Human Migration / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Risk Factors
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis
  • Transportation / statistics & numerical data*
  • Travel / statistics & numerical data*
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Urban Population / statistics & numerical data*