||PURPOSE: To develop a predictive test for response and survival following neoadjuvant taxane-anthracycline chemotherapy for HER2-negative invasive breast cancer.
METHODS: We developed a microarray-based gene expression test from pre-treatment tumor biopsies (310 patients) to predict favorable outcome based on estrogen receptor (ER) status,pathologic response to chemotherapy, 3-year disease outcomes, and sensitivity to endocrine therapy. Tumors were classified as treatment-sensitive if predicted to have pathologic response (and not resistance) to chemotherapy, or sensitive to endocrine therapy. We tested predictive accuracy, with 95% confidence interval (CI), for pathologic response (PPV, positive predictive value), distant relapse-free survival (DRFS), and absolute risk reduction at median follow-up in 198 other patients. Independence from clinical-pathologic factors was assessed in a multivariate Cox regression analysis based on the likelihood ratio test. Other evaluable, published response predictors (genomic grade index (GGI), intrinsic subtype (PAM50), pCR predictor (DLDA30)) were compared.