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Dehmer SP, Maciosek MV, Flottemesch TJ. Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis: Technical Report [Internet]. Rockville (MD): Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (US); 2015 Sep. (Evidence Syntheses, No. 131s.)

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  • This publication is provided for historical reference only and the information may be out of date.

This publication is provided for historical reference only and the information may be out of date.

Cover of Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer

Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Colorectal Cancer: A Decision Analysis: Technical Report [Internet].

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Appendix A

Appendix A Table 1. Comparison of Baseline Modeled CVD Event Rates With National Prevalence Estimates.

Appendix A Table 1

Comparison of Baseline Modeled CVD Event Rates With National Prevalence Estimates.

Appendix A Table 2. Lifetime Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin for Men and Women (KQ 1a).

Appendix A Table 2

Lifetime Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin for Men and Women (KQ 1a).

Appendix A Table 3. Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin Over 20 Years for Men and Women (KQ 1b).

Appendix A Table 3

Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin Over 20 Years for Men and Women (KQ 1b).

Appendix A Table 4. Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin Over 10 Years for Men and Women (KQ 1c).

Appendix A Table 4

Discounted Net Benefit of Aspirin Over 10 Years for Men and Women (KQ 1c).

Appendix A Table 5. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 40-49 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 5

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 40-49 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 6. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 40-49 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 6

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 40-49 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 7. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 50-59 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 7

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 50-59 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 8. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 50-59 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 8

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 50-59 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 9. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 60-69 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 9

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 60-69 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 10. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 60-69 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 10

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 60-69 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 11. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 70-79 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 11

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Men Aged 70-79 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 12. Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 70-79 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Table 12

Detailed Benefits and Harms From Aspirin Use for Women Aged 70-79 (KQs 1a-c).

Appendix A Figure 1 compares the lifetime net benefit from taking aspirin, averaged across all age, sex, and baseline CVD risk groups, across 18 deterministic (one-way) sensitivity scenarios identified for KQ 1a. This figure illustrates differences in net life-years and net QALYs relative to the base-case analysis, in a scatter plot. The x-axis measures life-years and the y-axis measures QALYs. The point of zero difference to the base-case analysis is indicated at the intersection of the x- and y-axes. Points with negative values to the left of the y-axis indicate that the net life-years are lower in the sensitivity scenario compared with the base-case analysis, and points with positive values to the right of the y-axis indicate that the net life-years are higher. Points with negative values below the x-axis indicate that the net QALYs are lower in the sensitivity scenario compared with the base-case analysis, and points with positive values above the x-axis indicate that the net QALYs are higher. The distance from which a sensitivity scenario is plotted away from the intersection of the x- and y-axes indicates the scale of difference in the net outcome findings in the sensitivity scenario compared to the base case.

Appendix A Figure 1

Comparisons in Lifetime Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Averaged Across All Age, Sex, and Baseline CVD Risk Groups (KQs 1a-c, Deterministic Sensitivity). Notes: ASA=acetylsalicylic acid (aspirin); CRC=colorectal cancer; RR=relative risk; CVD=cardiovascular (more...)

Appendix A Table 13. Comparisons in Lifetime Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1a, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 13

Comparisons in Lifetime Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1a, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 14. Comparisons in Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Over 20 Years for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1b, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 14

Comparisons in Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Over 20 Years for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1b, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 15. Comparisons in Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Over 10 Years for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1c, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 15

Comparisons in Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Over 10 Years for Men and Women at 10% CVD Risk (KQ 1c, Deterministic Sensitivity).

Appendix A Table 16. Marginal Discounted Lifetime Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Now Versus Delaying 10 Years (KQ 2).

Appendix A Table 16

Marginal Discounted Lifetime Net Benefit From Taking Aspirin Now Versus Delaying 10 Years (KQ 2).

Appendix A Table 17. Comparison of Modeled Baseline (Preventable) 10-Year Event Rates to 2009 USPSTF Review.

Appendix A Table 17

Comparison of Modeled Baseline (Preventable) 10-Year Event Rates to 2009 USPSTF Review.

Appendix A Table 18. Comparison of Modeled Baseline GI Bleeding and Hemorrhagic Stroke Event Rates.

Appendix A Table 18

Comparison of Modeled Baseline GI Bleeding and Hemorrhagic Stroke Event Rates.

Appendix A Figure 2 compares 10-year CVD outcomes as predicted by ModelHealth: CVD with 10-year CVD risk as predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator among men aged 40 to 79 years. CVD events are indicated by incidence of nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, or coronary death. The figure presents the comparison in a scatter plot, with 10-year CVD risk (0% to 20%) predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator on the x-axis and 10-year event rates (0% to 20%) observed by the model on the y-axis. Four data series are presented with men aged 40 to 49 indicated by diamonds, men aged 50 to 59 indicated by squares, men aged 60 to 69 indicated by triangles, and men aged 70 to 79 indicated by an “x.” A 45 degree line from the x- and y-axis origin indicates perfect concordance between CVD event rates observed in the model and those predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator. Points above this line indicate that for persons with a given 10-year percentage risk predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator, the model generates a higher percentage event rate over 10 years. Conversely, points below this line indicate that for persons with a given 10-year percentage risk predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator, the model generates a lower percentage event rate over 10 years.

Appendix A Figure 2

Comparison of 10-Year Model Outcomes With ACC/AHA 10-Year Risk Among Men Aged 40-79 Years. Notes: ACC/AHA=American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. The y-axis represents the percent of persons observed having their first hard atherosclerotic (more...)

Appendix A Figure 3 compares 10-year CVD outcomes as predicted by ModelHealth: CVD with 10-year CVD risk as predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator among women aged 40 to 79 years. CVD events are indicated by incidence of nonfatal MI, nonfatal stroke, or coronary death. The figure presents the comparison in a scatter plot, with 10-year CVD risk (0% to 20%) predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator on the x-axis and 10-year event rates (0% to 20%) observed by ModelHealth: CVD on the y-axis. Four data series are presented with women aged 40 to 49 indicated by diamonds, women aged 50 to 59 indicated by squares, women aged 60 to 69 indicated by triangles, and women aged 70 to 79 indicated by an “x.” A 45 degree line from the x- and y-axis origin indicates perfect concordance between CVD event rates observed in the model and those predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator. Points above this line indicate that for persons with a given 10-year percentage risk predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator, the model generates a higher percentage event rate over 10 years. Conversely, points below this line indicate that for persons with a given 10-year percentage risk predicted by the ACC/AHA risk calculator, the model generates a lower percentage event rate over 10 years.

Appendix A Figure 3

Comparison of 10-Year Model Outcomes With ACC/AHA 10-Year Risk Among Women Aged 40-79 Years. Notes: ACC/AHA=American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. The y-axis represents the percent of persons observed having their first hard atherosclerotic (more...)

Appendix A Table 19. Comparison of Positive Net Event Thresholds by CVD Risk Over a 10-Year Horizon to 2009 USPSTF Review.

Appendix A Table 19

Comparison of Positive Net Event Thresholds by CVD Risk Over a 10-Year Horizon to 2009 USPSTF Review.

Appendix A Table 20. Comparison of Major Event Rates to van Kruijsdijk et al (2015).

Appendix A Table 20

Comparison of Major Event Rates to van Kruijsdijk et al (2015).

Appendix A Table 21. Comparison of Major Event Rates to Cuzick et al (2015).

Appendix A Table 21

Comparison of Major Event Rates to Cuzick et al (2015).

Appendix A Table 22. Comparison of CVD and CRC Mortality Rates in Model Results Versus Clinical Trials.

Appendix A Table 22

Comparison of CVD and CRC Mortality Rates in Model Results Versus Clinical Trials.

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