Table 1Prognostic models or risk scoring methods with potential application in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases

Risk prediction methodClear statement of application in primary preventionExternal validationHealth outcomesConvergent validation
ARIC diabetes 24 Yes No No No
Bombay 25 Yes Mukherjee et al. 1996 25 No No
British Regional Heart Study 26 Yes No No Wierzbicki et al. 2000 27
Haq et al. 2001 28
Busselton29;30 Yes No No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Cardiff Type 2 diabetes coronary heart disease risk function 32 Yes No No No
Carta del Rischio del PPP 2001 33 Yes No No No
CERT (WOSCOPS) 34 Yes No No Haq et al. 1999 35
Copenhagen stroke 36 Yes No No Dréau et al. 2001 31
CUORE 37 Yes No No No
DECODE 38 Yes No No No
Dubbo 39 Yes No No No
Dundee 40 Yes See Table 15 No Vilaseca Canais et al, 1997 41
Dréau et al. 2001 31
Haq et al. 2001 28
Wierzbicki et al. 2000 27
ERICA 42 Yes Knuiman et al. 1997 30 No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Family heart study score 43 Yes No No No
FINE 2002 44 Yes No No No
FINRISK45;46 Yes No No Bhopal 2005 45
Framingham-Abbott 1987 47 Yes See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Anderson 199148;49 Yes See Table 9 See Table 17 See Table 6, Table 7
Framingham-D’Agostino 2000 50 Yes No No Nanchalal et al. 2002 51
Framingham-Laurier 199552;53 Yes Torremocha et al. 2001 54 No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Framingham-Levy 1990 55 Yes No No No
Framingham-McGee 1973 56
Framingham-Shurtleff 1974 57
Framingham-Kannel 1976 58 		Yes See Table 9 No No
Framingham-MRFIT Group 1977 59 Yes No No No
Framingham-Odell 1994 60 Yes No No No
Framingham-Wilson 1998 61 Yes See Table 9 No Broedl et al. 2003 62
Game et al. 2001 63
Jones et al. 2001 64
Framingham-Wolf 199165
Framingham-D’Agostino 199466 (stroke)		 Yes Truelsen et al. 199436 No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Global coronary risk score 67 Yes Kornitzer et al. 2000 67 No No
Glostrup 68 Yes Schroll et al. 1981 68
Gothenburg
Schroll et al. 1981 68
Copenhagen 		No No
GREAT 27 Yes No No Wierzbicki et al. 2000 27
GRIPS 1990 69 Yes No No No
INDANA 70 Yes No No No
International Cooperative Study on Cardio-vascular Epidemiology 71 Yes No No No
Italian cohorts of Seven countries study 1985 72 Yes No No No
Italian cohorts of Seven countries study 1990 73 Yes No No No
John Hopkins multiple risk equations 74 Yes No No No
Kaiser Permanente 75 Yes No No No
Luoto 76 Yes No No No
McManus 1986 77 Yes No No No
MRFIT CHD prevention model 78 Yes No No No
Nagpur 79 Yes Zodpey et al. 1994 79 No No
North Karelia 80 Yes No No No
Northwick Park 81 Yes No No No
Olmsted County 82 Yes Tsang et al. 2003 82 No No
Paris Prospective Study 1976 83 Yes No No Dréau H. 2001 31
Paris Prospective Study 1981 84 Yes No No Laurier 1994 53
Physicians’ Health Study 85 Yes No No No
Plovdiv 86 Yes Valkov et al. 1995 86 No No
PRECARD 87 Yes No No De Visser et al. 2003 88
PROCAM Assmann 1993 89 Yes See Table 13 No Game et al. 2001 90
Haq et al. 1999 35
Haq et al. 2001 28
PROCAM Assmann 1997 91 Yes See Table 13 No No
PROCAM Assmann 1998 92
Cullen 1998 93 		Yes See Table 13 No Alvarez et al. 2002 94
PROCAM Assmann 2002 95
Assmann 2003 96 		Yes See Table 13 No Broedl et al. 2003 62
PROCAM Voss 2002 97 Yes See Table 13 X No
Il Progetto Romano di Prevenzione della Cardiopatia Coronarica 98 Yes Mariotti et al. 1977 98 No No
Rasmusen Centre 99 Yes No No No
RCV-ap 100 Yes No No Vilaseca Canais et al. 41
REGICOR 101 Yes No No No
RIFLE 102 Yes No No No
RISCARD103;104 Yes No No No
Rotterdam 2002 Nijhuis 105 Yes No No No
Rotterdam 2003 Nijhuis 106 Yes No No No
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Diabetes research group 107 Yes No No No
SCORE 108 Yes Aktas 2004 109 No Bhopal et al. 2005 45
Horan et al. 2004 110
UKPDS 111 Yes McEwan 2001 112
Protopsaltis 2004 113		 No Song et al. 2004 114
US Railway 115 Yes No No Regression coefficients compared with Framingham Gordon 1971 115
West Dorset 116 Yes No No No
Westlund score 117 Yes No Hetlevik 1998 118
1999 119 		No
WHO 1974 120 Yes No No Mariotti 1977 98
Women’s Health Study 2002 85 Yes No No No
Zoetermeer 121 Yes No No No
Albany 122 No Katz 1993 122 No No
ARIC stroke 123 No No No No
ARIC 124 No No No No
Augsburg MONICA 125 No No No No
Chicago Gas 122 No Katz 1993 122 No No
Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry 2001 126 No No No No
Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry 2004 127 No No No No
Chicago Western Electric 122 No Katz 1993 122 No No
Chinese multi-provincial cohort study 128 No No No No
Framingham-D’Agostino 2001 129 No See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Gordon 1977 130 No No No No
Framingham-Larson 1995 131 No No No No
Framingham-Leaverton 1987 132 No No No No
Framingham-Liao 1999 133 No See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Liao 2002 134 No See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Schauffler 1993 135 No No No No
Framingham-Sytkowski 1997 136 No No No No
Framingham-Thomsen 2002 137 No See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Truett 1967 138 No See Table 9 No No
Framingham-Walker 1967 139 No No No No
Gubbio 140 No No No No
Hypertension Detection and Follow-up programme 141 No No No No
INSIGHT 142 No No No No
Leoncini 2002 143 No No No No
NHANES 1 and 2 1999 144 No Liao 1999 144 No No
NHANES 1 133 No Liao 1999 133 No No
NHANES 2 133 No Liao 1999 133 No No
NHEFS 132 No Knuiman 1997 30
Leaverton 1987 132 		No No
North Sweden MONICA 145 No No No Persson 2003 145
PROCAM Assmann 1990 146 No See Table 13 No No
PROCAM Assmann 1992 147 No See Table 13 No No
PROCAM Assmann 1994 148 No See Table 13 No Megnien et al. 1999 149
Wierzbicki et al. 2000 27
PROCAM Assmann 1996 150 No See Table 13 No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Santé Québec Heart Health Survey 151 No Ciampi 2001 151 No No
Seven Countries 1996 152 No Menotti 1996 152 No No
Tecumseh 1976 122 No Katz 1993 122 No No
Tecumseh 1993 122 No Katz 1993 122 No No
TEKHARF 153 No No No No
Western Collaborative group 1976 154 No No No Dréau et al. 2001 31
Western Collaborative group 1991 155 No No No No

From: Risk scoring methods designed to identify people at high risk of cardiovascular disease

Cover of A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement)
A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement) [Internet].
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 67S.
Beswick AD, Brindle P, Fahey T, et al.
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