Table 1Prognostic models or risk scoring methods with potential application in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases

Risk prediction methodClear statement of application in primary preventionExternal validationHealth outcomesConvergent validation
ARIC diabetes24YesNoNoNo
Bombay25YesMukherjee et al. 1996 25NoNo
British Regional Heart Study26YesNoNoWierzbicki et al. 200027
Haq et al. 200128
Busselton29;30YesNoNoDréau et al. 200131
Cardiff Type 2 diabetes coronary heart disease risk function32YesNoNoNo
Carta del Rischio del PPP 200133YesNoNoNo
CERT (WOSCOPS)34YesNoNoHaq et al. 199935
Copenhagen stroke36YesNoNoDréau et al. 200131
CUORE37YesNoNoNo
DECODE38YesNoNoNo
Dubbo39YesNoNoNo
Dundee40YesSee Table 15NoVilaseca Canais et al, 199741
Dréau et al. 200131
Haq et al. 200128
Wierzbicki et al. 200027
ERICA42YesKnuiman et al. 199730NoDréau et al. 200131
Family heart study score43YesNoNoNo
FINE 200244YesNoNoNo
FINRISK45;46YesNoNoBhopal 200545
Framingham-Abbott 198747YesSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Anderson 199148;49YesSee Table 9See Table 17See Table 6, Table 7
Framingham-D’Agostino 2000 50YesNoNoNanchalal et al. 200251
Framingham-Laurier 199552;53YesTorremocha et al. 200154NoDréau et al. 200131
Framingham-Levy 1990 55YesNoNoNo
Framingham-McGee 197356
Framingham-Shurtleff 197457
Framingham-Kannel 197658
YesSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-MRFIT Group 197759YesNoNoNo
Framingham-Odell 199460YesNoNoNo
Framingham-Wilson 199861YesSee Table 9NoBroedl et al. 200362
Game et al. 200163
Jones et al. 200164
Framingham-Wolf 199165
Framingham-D’Agostino 199466 (stroke)
YesTruelsen et al. 199436NoDréau et al. 200131
Global coronary risk score67YesKornitzer et al. 200067NoNo
Glostrup68YesSchroll et al. 198168
Gothenburg
Schroll et al. 198168
Copenhagen
NoNo
GREAT27YesNoNoWierzbicki et al. 200027
GRIPS 1990 69YesNoNoNo
INDANA70YesNoNoNo
International Cooperative Study on Cardio-vascular Epidemiology71YesNoNoNo
Italian cohorts of Seven countries study 198572YesNoNoNo
Italian cohorts of Seven countries study 199073YesNoNoNo
John Hopkins multiple risk equations74YesNoNoNo
Kaiser Permanente75YesNoNoNo
Luoto76YesNoNoNo
McManus 198677YesNoNoNo
MRFIT CHD prevention model78YesNoNoNo
Nagpur79YesZodpey et al. 1994 79NoNo
North Karelia80YesNoNoNo
Northwick Park81YesNoNoNo
Olmsted County82YesTsang et al. 200382NoNo
Paris Prospective Study 197683YesNoNoDréau H. 200131
Paris Prospective Study 198184YesNoNoLaurier 199453
Physicians’ Health Study85YesNoNoNo
Plovdiv86YesValkov et al. 1995 86NoNo
PRECARD87YesNoNoDe Visser et al. 200388
PROCAM Assmann 199389YesSee Table 13NoGame et al. 200190
Haq et al. 199935
Haq et al. 200128
PROCAM Assmann 199791YesSee Table 13NoNo
PROCAM Assmann 199892
Cullen 199893
YesSee Table 13NoAlvarez et al. 200294
PROCAM Assmann 200295
Assmann 200396
YesSee Table 13NoBroedl et al. 200362
PROCAM Voss 200297YesSee Table 13XNo
Il Progetto Romano di Prevenzione della Cardiopatia Coronarica98YesMariotti et al. 197798NoNo
Rasmusen Centre99YesNoNoNo
RCV-ap100YesNoNoVilaseca Canais et al.41
REGICOR101YesNoNoNo
RIFLE102YesNoNoNo
RISCARD103;104YesNoNoNo
Rotterdam 2002 Nijhuis105YesNoNoNo
Rotterdam 2003 Nijhuis106YesNoNoNo
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh Diabetes research group107YesNoNoNo
SCORE108YesAktas 2004109NoBhopal et al. 200545
Horan et al. 2004110
UKPDS111YesMcEwan 2001 112
Protopsaltis 2004 113
NoSong et al. 2004114
US Railway115YesNoNoRegression coefficients compared with Framingham Gordon 1971115
West Dorset116YesNoNoNo
Westlund score117YesNoHetlevik 1998118
1999119
No
WHO 1974120YesNoNoMariotti 197798
Women’s Health Study 200285YesNoNoNo
Zoetermeer121YesNoNoNo
Albany122NoKatz 1993122NoNo
ARIC stroke123NoNoNoNo
ARIC124NoNoNoNo
Augsburg MONICA125NoNoNoNo
Chicago Gas122NoKatz 1993122NoNo
Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry 2001126NoNoNoNo
Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry 2004127NoNoNoNo
Chicago Western Electric122NoKatz 1993122NoNo
Chinese multi-provincial cohort study128NoNoNoNo
Framingham-D’Agostino 2001129NoSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Gordon 1977130NoNoNoNo
Framingham-Larson 1995131NoNoNoNo
Framingham-Leaverton 1987132NoNoNoNo
Framingham-Liao 1999133NoSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Liao 2002134NoSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Schauffler 1993135NoNoNoNo
Framingham-Sytkowski 1997136NoNoNoNo
Framingham-Thomsen 2002137NoSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Truett 1967138NoSee Table 9NoNo
Framingham-Walker 1967139NoNoNoNo
Gubbio140NoNoNoNo
Hypertension Detection and Follow-up programme141NoNoNoNo
INSIGHT142NoNoNoNo
Leoncini 2002143NoNoNoNo
NHANES 1 and 2 1999144NoLiao 1999144NoNo
NHANES 1133NoLiao 1999133NoNo
NHANES 2133NoLiao 1999133NoNo
NHEFS132NoKnuiman 199730
Leaverton 1987132
NoNo
North Sweden MONICA145NoNoNoPersson 2003145
PROCAM Assmann 1990146NoSee Table 13NoNo
PROCAM Assmann 1992147NoSee Table 13NoNo
PROCAM Assmann 1994148NoSee Table 13NoMegnien et al. 1999149
Wierzbicki et al. 200027
PROCAM Assmann 1996150NoSee Table 13NoDréau et al. 200131
Santé Québec Heart Health Survey151NoCiampi 2001151NoNo
Seven Countries 1996152NoMenotti 1996152NoNo
Tecumseh 1976122NoKatz 1993122NoNo
Tecumseh 1993122NoKatz 1993122NoNo
TEKHARF153NoNoNoNo
Western Collaborative group 1976154NoNoNoDréau et al. 200131
Western Collaborative group 1991155NoNoNoNo

From: Risk scoring methods designed to identify people at high risk of cardiovascular disease

Cover of A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement)
A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement) [Internet].
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 67S.
Beswick AD, Brindle P, Fahey T, et al.
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