TABLE 6-2, Foresight Tools Identified by Academic Studies and Intergovernmental Organizations - Safeguarding the Bioeconomy

Qualitative Foresight Tools	Quantitative Foresight Tools	Semiquantitative Foresight Tools
Backcasting^{^a,^b}	Agent-based modeling^{^a,^b}	Cross-impact/structural analysis^{^a,^b}
Brainstorming^{^a,^b}	Benchmarking^{^a}
Citizens panels^{^a,^b}	Indicators^{^a}	Delphi method^{^a,^b,^c}
Conferences/workshops^{^a,^b}	Bibliometrics^{^a}	Key/critical technologies^{^a,^b}
Essays/scenario writing^{^a}	Patent analysis (e.g., technology forecasting)^{^a,^b} Time-series analysis (e.g., trends)^{^a,^b,^c}	Multicriteria analysis^{^a,^b}
Expert panels^{^a,^b}	Polling/voting^{^a}
Genius forecasting^{^a}	Quantitative scenarios/cross-impact systems and matrices^{^a,^b}
Literature review^{^a}
Morphological analysis^{^a,^b}
Relevance trees/logic charts^{^a,^b}	Econometrics^{^a} Simulation models^{^a} System dynamics^{^b}	Roadmapping^{^a,^b} Stakeholder analysis^{^a} Mixing econometrics, simulation models, and qualitative methods^{^a}
Role play/acting^{^a}Horizon scanning^{^a,^b,^c} Scenario workshops^{^a,^b,^c}
Science fictioning^{^a}
Simulation gaming ^{^a,^b}
Surveys^{^a}
SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis^{^a,^b}
Weak signals/wildcards^{^a}
Assumption-based planning^{^b}

Qualitative Foresight Tools

Quantitative Foresight Tools

Semiquantitative Foresight Tools

Backcasting^{^a,^b}

Agent-based modeling^{^a,^b}

Cross-impact/structural analysis^{^a,^b}

Brainstorming^{^a,^b}

Benchmarking^{^a}

Citizens panels^{^a,^b}

Indicators^{^a}

Delphi method^{^a,^b,^c}

Conferences/workshops^{^a,^b}

Bibliometrics^{^a}

Key/critical technologies^{^a,^b}

Essays/scenario writing^{^a}

Patent analysis (e.g., technology forecasting)^{^a,^b} Time-series analysis (e.g., trends)^{^a,^b,^c}

Multicriteria analysis^{^a,^b}

Expert panels^{^a,^b}

Polling/voting^{^a}

Genius forecasting^{^a}

Quantitative scenarios/cross-impact systems and matrices^{^a,^b}

Literature review^{^a}

Morphological analysis^{^a,^b}

Relevance trees/logic charts^{^a,^b}

Econometrics^{^a} Simulation models^{^a} System dynamics^{^b}

Roadmapping^{^a,^b} Stakeholder analysis^{^a} Mixing econometrics, simulation models, and qualitative methods^{^a}

Role play/acting^{^a}Horizon scanning^{^a,^b,^c} Scenario workshops^{^a,^b,^c}

Science fictioning^{^a}

Simulation gaming ^{^a,^b}

Surveys^{^a}

SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis^{^a,^b}

Weak signals/wildcards^{^a}

Assumption-based planning^{^b}

From: 6, HORIZON SCANNING AND FORESIGHT METHODS

Safeguarding the Bioeconomy.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; Health and Medicine Division; Policy and Global Affairs; Division on Earth and Life Studies; Forum on Cyber Resilience; Board on Health Sciences Policy; Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy; Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources; Board on Life Sciences; Committee on Safeguarding the Bioeconomy: Finding Strategies for Understanding, Evaluating, and Protecting the Bioeconomy While Sustaining Innovation and Growth.

Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2020 Jan 14.

NCBI Bookshelf. A service of the National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.

TABLE 6-2Foresight Tools Identified by Academic Studies and Intergovernmental Organizations