TABLE 3-10Surveillance and Containment for Various Delays in Case Recognition, Excluding the 500 Initial Casesa

Additional delay in recognition (days)Cases Deaths
MeanQ1bQ3bMeanQ1Q3
Current modelc (no additional delay)828694935211173239
11,6811,5091,848416370459
22,0171,8792,162503461533
32,2171,9952,373578522625
42,3722,0812,601658585720
52,7862,5743,007780720841
a

Based on 100 simulations.

b

Q1: first quartile; Q3: third quartile.

c

Model default: smallpox cases are recognized in the hospital either seven days (ordinary and modified cases) or four days (hemorrhagic cases) after onset of fever.

From: 3, Strategies for Disease Containment

Cover of Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease
Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease: Workshop Summary.
Institute of Medicine (US) Forum on Microbial Threats.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2007.
Copyright © 2007, National Academy of Sciences.

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