1. Acemozğlu D, Finkelstein A. Input and technology choices in regulated industries: Evidence from the healthcare sector. Journal of Political Economy. 2008;116(5):837–880.
  2. Acemozğlu D, Linn J. Market size in innovation: Theory and evidence from the pharmaceutical sector. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2004;119(3):1049–1090.
  3. Aranovich G, Bhattacharya J, Garber A, MaCurdy T. Coping with chronic disease? Chronic disease and disability in elderly American population 1982–1999 NBER Working Paper No 14811. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research; 2009.
  4. Baker LC. The effect of HMOs on fee-for-service health care expenditures: Evidence from Medicare. Journal of Health Economics. 1997;16:453–482. [PubMed: 10169101]
  5. Baker LC. Association of managed care market share and health expenditures for fee-for-service Medicare patients. Journal of the American Medical Association. 1999;281(5):432–437. [PubMed: 9952203]
  6. Baker LC. Managed care spillover effects. Annual Review of Public Health. 2003;24:435–456. [PubMed: 12471276]
  7. Baker LC, Shankarkumar S. Managed care and health care expenditures: Evidence from Medicare, 1990–1994. Forum for Health Economics & Policy. 1998. p. Article 5. (Frontiers in Health Policy Research) Available: http://www​.bepress.com/fhep/1/5/
  8. Baker LC, Wheeler SK. Managed care and technology diffusion: The case of MRI. Health Affairs. 1998;17:195–207. [PubMed: 9769583]
  9. Baker LC, McClellan MB. Managed care, health care quality, and regulation. Journal of Legal Studies. 2001;30(2):715–741.
  10. Banks J, Marmot M, Oldfield Z, Smith J. Disease and disadvantage in the United States and in England. Journal of the American Medical Association. 2006;295(17):2037–2045. [PubMed: 16670412]
  11. Bhattacharya J, Choudhry K, Lakdawalla D. Chronic disease and severe disability among working-age populations. Medical Care. 2008;45(1):92–100. [PubMed: 18162861]
  12. Bhattacharya J, Garber A, MaCurdy T. The narrowing dispersion of Medicare expenditures, 1995–2005, Research findings in the economics of aging. Wise David., editor. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 2010.
  13. Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Annual report. Washington, DC: Author; 2009.
  14. Borger C, Rutherford TF, Won GY. Projecting long-term medical spending growth. Journal of Health Economics. 2008;27(1):69–88. [PubMed: 17459502]
  15. Bundorf KM, Escarce JJ, Stafford JA, Gaskin D, Jollis JG, Schulman K. Impact of managed care on the treatment, costs, and outcomes of fee-for-service Medicare patients with acute myocardial infarction. Health Services Research. 2004;39(1):131–152. [PMC free article: PMC1360998] [PubMed: 14965081]
  16. Chernew ME. HMO use of diagnostic tests: A review of the evidence. Medical Care Research and Review. 1995;52(2):196–222. [PubMed: 10154560]
  17. Chernew ME, Gowrisankaran G, Fendrick AM. Payer type and the returns to bypass surgery: Evidence from hospital entry behavior. Journal of Health Economics. 2002;21(3):451–474. [PubMed: 12022268]
  18. Chernew ME, DeCicca P, Town R. Managed care and medical expenditures of Medicare beneficiaries. Journal of Health Economics. 2008;27:1451–1461. [PubMed: 18801588]
  19. Congressional Budget Office. The long-term budget outlook. Washington, DC: Author; 2009.
  20. Finkelstein A. Static and dynamic effects of health policy: Evidence from the vaccine industry. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2004;119(2):527–564.
  21. Finkelstein A. The aggregate effects of health insurance: Evidence from the introduction of Medicare. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2007;122(1):1–37.
  22. Finkelstein EA, Trogdon JG, Brown DS, Allaire BT, Dellea P, Kamal-Bahl S. The lifetime medical cost burden of overweight and obesity: Implications for obesity prevention. Obesity. 2008;16(8):1843–1848. [PubMed: 18535543]
  23. Finkelstein EA, Brown DS, Wrage LA, Allaire BT, Hoerger TJ. Individual and aggregate years of life lost associated with overweight and obesity. Obesity. 2009a August 13 Advance online publ. [PubMed: 19680230]
  24. Finkelstein EA, Trogdon JG, Cohen JW, Dietz WH. Annual medical spending attributable to obesity: Payer- and service-specific estimates. Health Affairs. 2009b;28(5):w831–w833. [PubMed: 19635784]
  25. Freedman VA, Martin LG. The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans. Demography. 1999;36:461–473. [PubMed: 10604075]
  26. Goldman DP, Shekelle PG, Bhattachrya J, Hurd M, Joyce GF, Lakdawalla DN, Matsui DH, Newberry SJ, Panis CWA, Shang B. Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly: Final report. RAND Corporation; Santa Monica, CA: 2004.
  27. Gruber J, Wise D, editors. Social Security and retirement around the world. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 1999.
  28. Hartman M, Martin A, Nuccio O, Catlin A. the National Health Expenditure Accounts Team. Health spending growth at a historic low in 2008. Health Affairs. 2010;29(1):147–155. [PubMed: 20048374]
  29. Heidenreich PA, McClellan M, Frances C, Baker LC. The relation between managed care market share and the treatment of elderly fee-for-service patients with myocardial infarction. NBER Working Paper 8065. 2001. Available: http://www​.nber.org/papers/w8065. [PubMed: 11893343]
  30. Jemal A, Ward E, Anderson R, Murray T, Thun M. Widening of socioeconomic inequalities in U.S. death rates, 1993–2001. PLoS ONE. 2008;3(5):e2181. [PMC free article: PMC2367434] [PubMed: 18478119]
  31. Karlamangla AS, Merkin SS, Crimmins EM, Seeman TE. Socioeconomic and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular risk in the United States, 2001–2006. (no date). (Unpublished manuscript) [PMC free article: PMC2901883] [PubMed: 20609342]
  32. Lakdawalla D, Bhattacharya J, Goldman D. Are the young becoming more disabled? Health Affairs. 2004;23(1):168–176. [PubMed: 15002639]
  33. Lee R. Quantifying our ignorance: Stochastic forecasts of population and public budgets, Aging, health, and public policy: Demographics of economic perspectives. Waite LJ, editor. New York: Population Council; 2004. Supplement to Population and Development Review, 30.
  34. Lubitz J, Cai L, Kramarowm E, Lentzner H. Health, life expectancy, and health care spending among the elderly. New England Journal of Medicine. 2003;349:1048–1055. [PubMed: 12968089]
  35. Manton KG, XiLiang G, Lamb V. Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2006;103(48):18374–18379. [PMC free article: PMC1635981] [PubMed: 17101963]
  36. Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. Report to the Congress: Medicare payment policy. Mar, 2009. Available: http://www​.medpac.gov​/documents/Mar09_EntireReport.pdf.
  37. Reynolds S, Crimmins EM. Trends in ability to work among men and women in the older American population: 1997–2007. Paper presented at the annual meeting of REVES; Copenhagen. 2009.
  38. Ruhm CJ. Current and future prevalence of obesity and severe obesity in the United States. Forum for Health Economics and Policy. Obesity. 2007. p. Article 6. Available: http://www​.bepress.com/fhep/10/2/6.
  39. Schoeni RF, Freedman VA, Martin LG. Why is late-life disability declining? Milbank Quarterly. 2008;86:47–89. [PMC free article: PMC2690336] [PubMed: 18307477]
  40. Shekelle PG, Ortiz E, Newberry SJ, Rich MW, Rhodes SL, Brook RH, Goldman DP. Identifying potential health care innovations for the future elderly. Health Affairs, W5. 2005:R67–76. [PubMed: 16186152]
  41. Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees Report. Review of the assumptions and methods of the Medicare Trustees’ financial projections. 2000. Available: http://www​.cms.gov/ReportsTrustFunds​/downloads/tr2009.pdf.
  42. Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees Report. Review of the assumptions and methods of the Medicare Trustees’ financial projections. 2004. Available: http//www​.aspe.gov/health​/medpanel/2004/2004​_Technical_Review​_Panel_on_the_Medicare_Trustees_Report​.pdf.
  43. Thorpe K. The future costs of obesity: National and state estimates of the impact of obesity on direct health care expenses. 2009. Available: http://www​.fightchronicdisease​.org/pdfs/CostofObesityReport-FINAL.pdf.
  44. Thorpe KE, Howard DH. The rise in spending among Medicare beneficiaries: The role of chronic disease prevalence and changes in treatment intensity. Health Affairs. 2006;25:5. [PubMed: 16926180]
  45. Thorpe KE, Florence CS, Howard DH, Joski P. Trends: The impact of obesity on rising medical spending. Health Affairs. 2004;W4:480–486. Suppl Web Exclusive. [PubMed: 15496437]
  46. Thorpe KE, Ogden LO, Galactionova K. Chronic conditions account for rise in Medicare spending from 1987 to 2006. Health Affairs. 2010 April;29:4. [PubMed: 20167626]
  47. van Meijgaard J, Fielding JE, Kominski GF. Assessing and forecasting population health: Integrating knowledge and beliefs in a comprehensive framework. Public Health Reports. 2009;124:778–789. [PMC free article: PMC2773940] [PubMed: 19894419]
  48. Wang Y, Baydoun M, Liang L, Caballerno B, Kumanyika S. Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic. Obesity. 2008 July 24;16(10):2323–2330. [PubMed: 18719634]
  49. Weizman M. Gamma discounting. American Economic Review. 2001;91(1):260–271.
  50. White C. The slowdown in Medicare spending growth. Working Paper 2006–08 Congressional Budget Office. Jul, 2006. Available: http://www​.cbo.gov/ftpdocs​/74xx/doc7453/2006-08.pdf.
  51. White C. Why did Medicare spending growth slow down? Health Affairs. 2008;27(3):793–802. [PubMed: 18474973]