A second group of children will arrive appearing very unwell with symptoms and signs of serious illness (mostly ‘red’ symptoms/signs) and will often be given immediate empirical antibiotic treatment.
Narrative evidence
White blood cell count
Nine studies166–174 evaluating WBC as a diagnostic marker for serious illness were found. The age ranges for these studies were birth to 16 years but in seven studies the upper limit was 36 months (age range mode: 3–36 months). Conditions studied were serious bacterial infection (SBI), meningococcal disease (MCD), bacterial meningitis, occult bacterial infection (OBI) and bacterial pneumonia. The cut-off value for WBC ranged from 15 to 17.1 × 109/litre. The ranges of performance of WBC as a marker of the presence of these serious illnesses were reported as sensitivity 20–76%, specificity 58–100% and RR 1.5–5.56.
Although one EL II study168 did demonstrate a ‘perfect’ specificity of 100% with a WBC of > 15 × 109/litre identifying all children with SBI, the next highest result was 77%. Another EL II study175 demonstrated an increased prevalence of occult bacteraemia with increasing height of fever and increasing WBC, but this was a US study conducted before the introduction of the conjugate pneumococcal vaccine, recently added to the UK childhood immunisation programme. These data are therefore likely to be less useful now.
One EL II prospective cohort study176 looked at the combination of WBC > 20 × 109/litre combined with fever > 39 °C in identifying ‘occult pneumonia’ (i.e. those with no clinical evidence of pneumonia) in children less than 5 years old. Between 26% and 30% of children with both these features had pneumonia on chest X-ray.
Absolute neutrophil count
Three EL II studies169–171 evaluating absolute neutrophil count (ANC) were found. Two looked at children aged 1–36 months169,171 and one at children aged 3–36 months.170 The studies evaluated markers to identify SBI and OBI or to differentiate invasive bacterial infection from localised bacterial or viral infection.170 The cut-off values for ANC were 10.2,169 10.6170 and 9.6 × 109/litre.170 The ranges of performance of ANC in identifying SBI were reported as sensitivity 50–71%, specificity 76–83% and RR 1.5–6.4.
C-reactive protein
A heterogeneous group of 11 EL II prospective cohort studies166–174,178 evaluating CRP was identified. Age ranges for these studies were birth to 16 years, but only three EL II studies contained data on children older than 36 months.166,172,174 Conditions studied were SBI, MCD, bacterial meningitis, bacteraemia, OBI and bacterial pneumonia. The cut-off value for CRP varied from 27.5 to 70 mg/litre. shows sensitivities, specificities and relative risks for CRP values in identifying serious illness or discriminating non-serious from serious illness for each study.
Summary of sensitivity, specificity and relative risk of included studies evaluating CRP.
Two other EL II studies170,171 looked at differences in CRP depending on the timing of the sample from the onset of symptoms. There was no significant difference in sensitivity or specificity between those CRP values collected more than 12 hours after the onset of feverish illness compared with those collected less than 12 hours after onset.170 Slightly lower sensitivity (61.3% versus 63.5%) and specificity (80% versus 84.2%) was reported for CRP in infants when taken less than 12 hours after the onset of symptoms, but this was at a lower cut-off value of 19 mg/ litre.170 Furthermore, the study which evaluated the differences in CRP performance at greater than and less than 12 months old was examined. At a CRP cut-off value of 40 mg/litre, for children less than 12 months old, sensitivity and specificity were reported to be 94% and 84%, respectively (RR 31.5), whereas for those greater than 12 months old, sensitivity and specificity were reported as 80% and 59%, respectively (RR 4.0).
This study also demonstrated increased post-test probability of SBI with increasing CRP (10% at CRP < 40 mg/litre versus 86% at CRP > 100 mg/litre).
Procalcitonin
An EL 1+ SR165 looking at 46 articles which evaluated the role of PCT as an early marker of infection in neonates and young children was identified. Neonatal studies regarding the investigation of children less than 3 months of age are discussed in Section 7.3 of this chapter. The findings of the SR against each clinical condition are summarised below.
Sepsis and meningitis
In children greater than 3 months old, PCT was found to have a significantly better diagnostic performance than CRP or WBC in identifying sepsis, septic shock and meningitis. PCT is also excellent in discriminating between viral and bacterial, and localised and invasive, bacterial infections. There was variation in the cut-off values used for PCT in the studies, with 2 ng/ml being most commonly reported as the best cut-off for distinguishing these groups. PCT was also found to perform better than CRP in identifying bacterial infection in children who had developed fever less than 12 hours prior to presentation. However, the authors added that since the negative predictive value of PCT is not always 100%, it can not be considered a gold standard and a normal PCT level could conceivably falsely reassure clinicians.165
Lower respiratory tract infection
Six of the studies looked at PCT as a marker for bacterial lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in children. Of these, three found PCT to be more effective than either CRP or WBC in differentiating bacterial from viral LRTI, whereas the other three studies found PCT to be of little value. This inconsistency may have been due to difficulty and differences in the confirmation of bacterial LRTI and also confounded by the use of antibiotics prior to measurement of PCT. PCT is known to fall rapidly once a bacterial infection is appropriately treated compared with CRP, which will fall more slowly and may even rise initially.165
Fever without localising signs
In another EL II study,178 the authors reported the results of PCT assessed in children with fever without localising signs. Children treated with antibiotics during the preceding 2 days were excluded. PCT was more sensitive (93% versus 79%) but less specific (74% versus 79%) than CRP for predicting SBI (bacteraemia, pyelonephritis, lobar pneumonia and meningitis) in children with fever without apparent source.
In addition to this systematic review,165 one prospective EL II cohort study167 studied 72 children 1–36 months old with fever without apparent source. Eight (11.1%) children had SBI (one pneumonia, two meningitis, four septicaemia/occult bacteraemia, two pyelonephritis), In identifying SBI in this group, PCT at a cut-off value of 2 ng/ml showed a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 85.9%. In comparison, at a cut-off of 50 mg/litre, CRP showed a sensitivity and specificity of 75% and 68.7% respectively, while the Yale Observation Score had a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 67.2%.
Chest X-ray
The diagnostic performance of chest X-ray in children with fever without apparent source (FWS) in relation to WBC is described above. In addition, one EL 1b SR179 and one EL II prospective cohort study180 were found that examined the diagnostic performance of chest radiography in differentiating bacterial and viral pneumonia in children.
The SR looked at five studies which used credible reference standards for identifying bacterial and viral infection. The authors considered identification of a bacterial pneumonia to be a positive test and of a viral pneumonia to be a negative test. As a result of heterogeneity in the studies, the authors could not report on comparable measures of diagnostic accuracy for each of the five studies. Rather, the researchers calculated likelihood ratios (LRs) for each study, as a measure of clinical usefulness of the chest X-ray. Commenting that LRs between 0.5 and 2.0 are rarely clinically useful, they reported no LRs outside these levels in the studies reviewed. The authors concluded that no clinically useful degree of accuracy had been demonstrated with regard to differentiating bacterial from viral pneumonia using chest radiography.
In an EL II study180 of children admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia, those with bacterial pneumonia had a significantly higher incidence of alveolar infiltrates compared with those with exclusively viral disease (72% versus 49%, P = 0.001). In children with exclusively interstitial infiltrates, half had bacterial infection and half viral.
Evidence summary
In children older than 3 months with fever without apparent source who appear well, 5% will have a bacterial infection, likely to be UTI or pneumonia. Occult bacteraemia is not often seen in the UK and is likely to decrease with the introduction of the universal pneumococcal vaccination. The currently available tests (CRP, PCT and WBC) do not improve the detection of SBI in this group, compared with features from the YOS.
In children who have fever with no focus but who display signs and symptoms that indicate a higher risk of serious illness, investigations looking for markers of bacterial infection may be useful, especially PCT and CRP. However, none will identify all children with serious illness. PCT appears to outperform CRP in identifying sepsis and meningitis in this group, using a cutoff value for PCT of around 2 ng/ml. This difference was not large, however, and after allowing for 95% confidence intervals may conceivably be even smaller. CRP still performs reasonably well at a typical cut-off value of 20 mg/litre. WBC and ANC perform less well than either CRP or PCT in helping to identify the presence of SBI. A combination of temperature > 39 °C and a WBC > 20 × 109/litre does, however, have a high specificity for occult pneumonia. Evidence is conflicting regarding the performance of chest radiography in differentiating bacterial and viral pneumonia in children but, at best, it has limited clinical usefulness.
Few studies were found looking at the usefulness of markers of bacterial infection in the management of children with fever without apparent source presenting to the paediatric specialist who were considered sufficiently unwell that intravenous anti-bacterial treatment should be initiated empirically. The sensitivities and specificities for CRP and PCT were not high enough to be able to definitively rule in or rule out serious illness and thus influence the decision to stop or to continue intravenous antibiotic treatment after it had been started. A raised CRP and/or PCT is not diagnostic of serious illness but can be useful as an aid to ongoing management of this group of patients.
Health economics
An economic evaluation was undertaken to assess the cost-effectiveness of CRP versus PCT to investigate the presence of SBI in children without apparent source (Appendix D). Health economic evaluation was required since PCT is not routinely used. All other diagnostic tests are offered on the NHS and are part of the usual package of tests for children over 3 months where SBI is suspected. The results indicated that under certain assumptions CRP is both less costly and more effective than PCT in correctly diagnosing and ruling out SBI in children with FWS. However, the results were sensitive to the prevalence of SBI. CRP no longer dominated PCT when the prevalence of SBI was over 27%, keeping all the other baseline assumptions constant. However, given the lack of robust evidence underpinning these baseline assumptions, the analysis cannot support the replacement of CRP with PCT at present. The GDG has recommended more research on the performance characteristics of CRP and PCT in children with feverish illness of uncertain cause.