FIGURE 1-2. Multimodel averages and assessed ranges for surface warming (compared to the 1980–1999 base period) for the SRES scenarios A2 (red), A1B (green), and B1 (blue), shown as continuations of the twentieth-century simulation.

FIGURE 1-2Multimodel averages and assessed ranges for surface warming (compared to the 1980–1999 base period) for the SRES scenarios A2 (red), A1B (green), and B1 (blue), shown as continuations of the twentieth-century simulation

The latter two scenarios are continued beyond the year 2100 with forcing kept constant (acommitted climate change as it is defined in Box TS.9 [of IPCC, 2007a]). An additional experiment, in which the forcing is kept at the year 2000 level is also shown (orange). Linear trends from the corresponding control runs have been removed from these time series. Lines show the multimodel means, shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range. Discontinuities between different periods have no physical meaning and are caused by the fact that the number of models that have run a given scenario is different for each period and scenario (numbers indicated in figure). For the same reason, uncertainty across scenarios should not be interpreted from this figure.

SOURCE: Figure TS.32a in IPCC (2007a).

From: 1, Climate Change Challenges

Cover of Global Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
Global Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Understanding the Contributions to Infectious Disease Emergence: Workshop Summary.
Institute of Medicine (US) Forum on Microbial Threats.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2008.
Copyright © 2008, National Academy of Sciences.

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