FIGURE 5-19. Predicted risk of H5N1 avian influenza introduction from countries that have had H5N1 outbreaks (in blue).
FIGURE 5-19. Predicted risk of H5N1 avian influenza introduction from countries that have had H5N1 outbreaks (in blue).

FIGURE 5-19Predicted risk of H5N1 avian influenza introduction from countries that have had H5N1 outbreaks (in blue)

Risk was estimated as the number of infectious bird days (number of infected birds × days shedding virus) caused by trade (presented as yearly totals per 12 months) in: (a) live poultry with no exports from countries reporting H5N1 in poultry (France, Denmark, Sweden, and Germany are considered H5N1-free). (b) Estimated number of ducks, geese, and swans migrating between mainland continents, number of infectious bird days, and number of species (in parentheses). Numbers given between Asia and North America include only those that breed on mainland Asia and winter in North America south of Alaska; an additional 200,000–400,000 ducks breed in Siberia and molt or winter in or off the coast of Alaska. In addition, about 20,000 geese migrate between Ireland and North America. SOURCE: Kilpatrick et al. (2006a).

From: 5, Infectious Disease Emergence: Past, Present, and Future

Cover of Microbial Evolution and Co-Adaptation
Microbial Evolution and Co-Adaptation: A Tribute to the Life and Scientific Legacies of Joshua Lederberg: Workshop Summary.
Institute of Medicine (US) Forum on Microbial Threats.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2009.
Copyright © 2009, National Academy of Sciences.

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