Demand scenario: all FOBT screening |

Ladabaum et al.,
2005^{201} | None | Current and
projected demand (in various screening scenarios) estimated by
Markov model | Assuming 75%
uptake, demand for colonoscopy would be 3.8 million if all
screening by FOBT | Good |

Demand scenario: FS screening every 5 years |

Ladabaum et al.,
2005^{201} | None | Current and
projected demand (in various screening scenarios) estimated by
Markov model | Assuming 75%
uptake, demand for FS would be 10 million and demand for
colonoscopy would be 2.7 million if all screening by FS | Good |

Brown et al.,
2003^{195}
Cross-sectional and
modeling
National sample of MDs; US
population | Current volume
estimated by survey of national sample of primary care
physicians, gastroenterologists, and general surgeons | Demand estimated
by microsimulation model that incorporates population estimates,
assumptions about test performance and screening program
policy | Assuming 70%
adherence: screening of national population with FS every 5
years would require the delivery of “almost 10 million” FSs in
2000 (2 times current volume) | Fair |

Demand scenario: annual FOBT/FS every 5 years |

Ladabaum et al.,
2005 (2887)^{201} | None | Current and
projected demand (in various screening scenarios) estimated by
Markov model | Assuming 75%
adherence, demand for FS would be 6.9 million and demand for
colonoscopy would be 4.7 million if all screening by
FOBT/FS | Good |

Vijan et al.,
2004^{200}
Secondary data analysis and
modeling
US population | Current volume
of colonoscopies conducted by gastroenterologists estimated by
analysis of CORI database | Demand estimated
by Markov model; number of lifetime colonoscopies and FSs per
patient for the US population under various scenarios | Assuming 70%
adherence, an FOBT/FS screening strategy would require an
incremental number of 1.2 million colonoscopies (above baseline
of 1.69 million per year)
Assuming 100%
adherence, an FOBT/FS screening strategy would require an
incremental number of 2.39 million colonoscopies (above baseline
of 1.69 million per year) | Fair (volume
estimates)
Good (demand estimates) |

Demand scenario: all colonoscopy screening |

Ladabaum et al.,
2005^{201} | None | Current and
projected demand (in various screening scenarios) estimated by
Markov model | Assuming 75%
uptake, demand for colonoscopy would be 8.1 million if all
screening by colonoscopy | Good |

Vijan et al.,
2004^{200}
Secondary data analysis and
modeling
US population | Current volume
of colonoscopies conducted by gastroenterologists estimated by
analysis of CORI database | Demand estimated
by Markov model; number of lifetime colonoscopies and FSs per
patient for the US population under various scenarios | Assuming 70%
adherence, a colonoscopy screening strategy every 10 years would
require an incremental number of 5.0 million colonoscopies
(above baseline of 1.69 million per
year)
Assuming 100% adherence, a colonoscopy
screening strategy every 10 years would require an incremental
number of 6.3 million colonoscopies (above baseline of 1.69
million per year) | Fair (volume
estimates)
Good (demand estimates) |

Brown et al.,
2003^{195}
Cross-sectional and
modeling
National sample of MDs; US
population | Current volume
estimated by survey of national sample of primary care
physicians, gastroenterologists, and general surgeons | Demand estimated
by microsimulation model that incorporates population estimates,
assumptions about test performance, and screening program
policy | Assuming 70%
adherence, screening of national population with colonoscopy
every 10 years would require 4.8 million screening/surveillance
colonoscopies in 2000 (3 times the current volume of 1.6
million) | Fair |

Demand scenario: screening the unscreened by various
strategies |

Seeff et al.,
2004^{202}
Modeling
US
population | Additional
available capacity estimates from Seeff et al., 2004 | Current
unscreened population at average risk estimated using census
data, adjusted for estimates of persons at higher risk and using
screening rates from NHIS | 41.8 million
persons unscreened
Using 100% of additional
available capacity, it would take 3 years at current screening
patterns or 6 years using 100% FS or FOBT/FS to screen the
unscreened population
Using 100% of additional
available capacity, it would take 5 years to screen the
unscreened population with colonoscopy
For a
program using FOBTs, there would be enough capacity for the
necessary follow-up colonoscopies within 1 year | Good |

Demand scenario: Increasing demand for CT
colonography |

Ladabaum et al.,
2005 (2887)^{201} | None | Current and
projected demand (in various screening scenarios) estimated by
Markov model | Assuming 75%
uptake, demand for colonoscopy would be 6.2 million CTC and 3.3
million colonoscopies if all screening by CTC | Good |

Hur et al.,
2004^{199}
Secondary data analysis and
modeling
US population | Current
colonoscopy volume estimated from CORI database | Demand for
colonoscopy predicted from mathematical model | Current volume:
6.47 million colonoscopies 1.98 million colonoscopies for
screening (29%)
If CTC used as primary modality
for CRC screening, assuming 55% adherence to screening and 67%
of screening is CTC, in the initial 5-year period after
implementation of CTC, demand for colonoscopy could decrease by
1.78 million; partially offset by 0.34 million follow-up
colonoscopies for CTC with positive findings (10 mm polyp) | Fair |

Pickardt et al.,
2008^{203}
Modeling
US
population | Current volume
of CTC estimated from secondary data on CT scanners in the
US | Markov model
used to estimate demand for the US population | Assuming 60%
compliance with screening, 67% of screening is CTC, and rise in
number and percentage of CT scanners performing CTC (from n =
718/10% to n = 10,000/90%), there is sufficient capacity to
screen 10 years from now in a steady-state scenario | Fair |