Table 3.1Probability estimates

BaselineLowHighReference
Probability of Cesarean with Expectant Management
41 weeks0.2930.1470.44Sanchez-Ramos90, U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
40 weeks0.2510.1260.377U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
39 weeks0.2360.1180.354U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
RR cesarean delivery for expectant management vs. IOL at 41 weeks1.00.71.5Gulmezoglu 200691
RR cesarean delivery for expectant management vs. IOL at 40 weeks1.00.71.5U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
RR cesarean delivery for expectant management vs .IOL at 39 weeks1.00.71.5U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
Probability of Cesarean with Induction
41 weeks0.270.1350.405U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
40 weeks0.2420.1210.363U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
39 weeks0.2230.11150.3345U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
Probability of Cesarean Delivery with Spontaneous labor0.2170.1080.325U.S. Birth Cohort 2003
Probability of Operative Vaginal Delivery
42 weeks0.1740.0870.261Caughey 2007130
41 weeks0.1330.06650.1995Caughey 2007130
40 weeks0.1090.05450.1635Caughey 2007130
39 weeks0.0940.0470.141Caughey 2007130
Probability of Epidural with Induction0.81430.71981UCSF
Probability of Epidural with Spontaneous Labor0.71980.61UCSF
Probability of IUFD
41 weeks0.00120.00060.0018Smith 2001 127
40 weeks0.00090.000450.00135Smith 2001 127
39 weeks0.00050.000250.00075Smith 2001 127
Probability of Spontaneous Labor
41 weeks0.520.260.78Alexander 2001 131
40 weeks0.390.1950.585UCSF
39 weeks0.240.120.36UCSF
Probability of Macrosomia
42 week0.150.0750.225Alexander 2000 132
41 weeks0.120.060.18Alexander 2000 132
40 weeks0.080.040.12Alexander 2000 132
39 weeks0.050.0250.075Alexander 2000, 132
Caughey 2004 98
Relative Risk for Cesarean Delivery with Macrosomia1.520.812.43Boulet 2003, 133 Sanchez-Ramos 200390
Probability of Meconium Stained Fluid
42 weeks0.2770.13850.4155Sanchez-Ramos 200390
41 weeks0.2240.1120.336Sanchez-Ramos 200390
40 weeks0.170.0850.255Dargaville 2006, 134
Sanchez-Ramos 200390
39 weeks0.1050.05250.1575Dargaville 2006,134
Sanchez-Ramos 200390
Probability of Meconium Aspiration Syndrome
42 weeks0.0320.0160.048Gulmezoglu 200691
41 weeks0.0080.0040.012Gulmezoglu 200691
40 weeks0.00450.002250.00675Dargaville 2006, 134
Gulmezoglu 200691
39 weeks0.00250.001250.00375Dargaville 2006, 134
Gulmezoglu 200691
Probability of Neonatal Demise if Meconium Aspiration Syndrome0.000250.0001250.000375Dargaville 2006 134
Probability of Shoulder Dystocia without Macrosomia0.00650.003250.00975Nesbitt 1998, 129
Rouse 1996 135
Probability of Shoulder Dystocia with Macrosomia0.10.050.15Nesbitt 1998129
Relative Risk for Shoulder Dystocia with Operative Vaginal Delivery1.740.952.85Nesbitt 1998129
Probability of Permanent Injury from Shoulder Dystocia0.00670.003350.01005Rouse 1996135
Probability of Neonatal Demise from Shoulder Dystocia0.0010.00050.0015Nesbitt 1998129
Probability of Positive NST
41 weeks0.140.070.21Bochner 1988136
40 weeks0.050.0250.075
Probability of Severe Perineal Laceration
39 weeks, Vaginal Delivery0.0190.00950.0285Caughey 2007130
39 weeks, Operative Vaginal Delivery0.2440.1220.366Caughey 2007130
40 weeks, Vaginal Delivery0.0220.0110.033Caughey 2007130
40 weeks, Operative Vaginal Delivery0.260.130.39estimated from Caughey 2007130
41 weeks, Vaginal Delivery0.0360.0180.054Caughey 2007130
41 weeks, Operative Vaginal Delivery0.260.130.39Caughey 2007130
42 weeks, Vaginal Delivery0.0510.02550.0765Caughey 2007130
42 Weeks, Operative Vaginal Delivery0.2820.1410.423Caughey 2007130
Probability of Preeclampsia
42 weeks0.0120.0060.018Caughey 200399
41 weeks0.0120.0060.018Caughey 200399
40 weeks0.0120.0060.018Caughey 200399
39 weeks0.0090.0050.015Caughey 200399
Probability of Maternal Mortality with Cesarean Delivery0.000350.0001750.000525Harper 2003137
Probability of Maternal Mortality with Vaginal Delivery0.0000920.0000460.000138Harper 2003137

RR=relative risk

From: 3, Decision Analytic Model of Elective Induction of Labor

Cover of Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes of Elective Induction of Labor
Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes of Elective Induction of Labor.
Evidence Reports/Technology Assessments, No. 176.
Caughey AB, Sundaram V, Kaimal AJ, et al.

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