TABLE 11-8Estimates of Future Latino Votes, 2012 and 2024, National and Selected States

Year Latino Vote (,000) Total Vote (,000) Latino (%) Latino Share of Statewide Vote
California (%) Florida (%) New York (%) Texas (%)
1976 2,098 86,698 2.4
1980 2,453 93,066 2.6
1984 3,092 101,878 3.0
1988 3,710 102,224 3.6 7.9 7.0 5.7 13.8
1992 4,238 113,866 3.7 9.6 7.1 5.0 13.6
1996 4,928 105,017 4.7 11.7 9.2 7.5 17.1
2000 5,934 110,826 5.3 13.9 11.2 7.2 18.6
2004 7,587 125,736 6.0 16.2 11.2 8.0 19.3
2012 (estimated) 8,791 118,583 7.4 21.7 18.2 8.2 21.7
2024 (estimated) 12,023 126,883 9.5

NOTE: Estimates for 2012 and 2024 assume continued incremental increase in Latino voting and a slower (and somewhat more erratic) increase in the total vote. The state-level Current Population Survey estimates have too much sampling error to develop reliable estimates for Latino and total votes or for 2024.

SOURCE: Author's estimates based on U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Election in the November Elections, various years.

From: 11, Latino Civic and Political Participation

Cover of Hispanics and the Future of America
Hispanics and the Future of America.
National Research Council (US) Panel on Hispanics in the United States; Tienda M, Mitchell F, editors.
Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2006.
Copyright © 2006, National Academy of Sciences.

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