Two different methods for addressing the regression to the mean phenomenon (RTM) were evaluated using empirical data: Data from 110 miles of freeway located in California were used to evaluate the performance of the EB and CRP methods in addressing RTM. CRP outperformed the EB method in estimating collision frequencies in selected high collision concentration locations (HCCLs). Findings indicate that the performance of the EB method can be markedly affected when SPF is biased, while the performance of CRP remains much less affected. The CRP method was more effective in addressing RTM.
Keywords: Continuous risk profile; Empirical bayes method; Random noise; Safety performance function; The regression to the mean.
Published by Elsevier Ltd.