Initial Cobb angle reduction velocity following bracing as a new predictor for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Purpose: The initial correction rate (ICR) has been widely used as a predictor for curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) undergoing bracing treatment. We proposed a new parameter, the initial Cobb angle reduction velocity (ARV), for prediction of curve progression. The purpose of this study was to identify whether the initial ARV was a more effective predictor than ICR for curve progression in AIS patients undergoing brace treatment, and to evaluate the ideal cut-off point of initial ARV for prediction of curve progression.

Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study on AIS girls receiving standardized bracing treatment regularly followed up every 3-6 months. Standardized SRS criteria for bracing study were utilized in the case selection. The demographic data, maturity status and Cobb angle of each visit were recorded. The initial ARV and ICR were identified. Patients were divided into progressive (≥6°) and non-progressive (<6°) groups based on their final bracing outcome. Differences between two groups were identified and logistic regression analysis was applied to compare the predictive values of initial ARV and ICR for curve progression during bracing treatment.

Results: Seventy-six patients were included in the non-progressive group and 19 in the progressive group. Significant differences between non-progressive and progressive groups were found in terms of initial ARV (12.8 ± 21.4°/year vs -5.4 ± 15.2°/year, P = 0.001) and ICR (12.1 ± 20.7 % vs -5.8 ± 18.0 %, P = 0.001). The logistic regression analysis revealed that age at initial visit (OR 1.742, P = 0.043) and initial ARV (OR 1.057, P = 0.002) had higher predictive values than ICR (P = 0.601) for curve progression in braced AIS girls. The ideal cut-off point of initial ARV was 10°/year (OR 8.959, P = 0.005) for the prediction of curve progression.

Conclusions: The initial Cobb angle reduction velocity serves as a better predictor for curve progression than initial correction rate in braced AIS patients with follow-up interval of 3-6 months. At the second visit following bracing prescription, those AIS patients with reduction velocity in Cobb angle lower than 10°/year have significantly higher risk of curve progression.