Modelling the risk of Pb and PAH intervention value exceedance in allotment soils by robust logistic regression

Environ Pollut. 2009 Jul;157(7):2019-22. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2009.02.032. Epub 2009 Mar 25.

Abstract

Soils of allotments are often contaminated by heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants. In particular, lead (Pb) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) frequently exceed legal intervention values (IVs). Allotments are popular in European countries; cities may own and let several thousand allotment plots. Assessing soil contamination for all the plots would be very costly. Soil contamination in allotments is often linked to gardening practice and historic land use. Hence, we predict the risk of IV exceedance from attributes that characterize the history and management of allotment areas (age, nearby presence of pollutant sources, prior land use). Robust logistic regression analyses of data of Swiss allotments demonstrate that the risk of IV exceedance can be predicted quite precisely without costly soil analyses. Thus, the new method allows screening many allotments at small costs, and it helps to deploy the resources available for soil contamination surveying more efficiently.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Cities
  • Environmental Monitoring / methods
  • Food Contamination / prevention & control
  • Gardening*
  • Lead / analysis*
  • Lead / standards
  • Logistic Models*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / analysis*
  • Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / standards
  • Risk
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Soil / analysis
  • Soil Pollutants / analysis*
  • Soil Pollutants / economics
  • Soil Pollutants / standards
  • Switzerland

Substances

  • Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
  • Soil
  • Soil Pollutants
  • Lead