COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

David W Dick; Lauren Childs; Zhilan Feng; Jing Li; Gergely Röst; David L Buckeridge; Nick H Ogden; Jane M Heffernan

doi:10.3390/vaccines10010017

COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

Vaccines (Basel). 2021 Dec 23;10(1):17. doi: 10.3390/vaccines10010017.

Authors

David W Dick¹, Lauren Childs², Zhilan Feng^{3

4}, Jing Li⁵, Gergely Röst⁶, David L Buckeridge⁷, Nick H Ogden⁸, Jane M Heffernan¹

Affiliations

¹ Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
² Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
³ Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 46202, USA.
⁴ National Science Foundation, Alexandria, VA 22314, USA.
⁵ Department of Mathematics, California State University, Northridge, CA 91330, USA.
⁶ Department of Mathematics, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary.
⁷ Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada.
⁸ National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Risk Sciences Division, Public Health Agency of Canada, St. Hyacinthe, QC J2S 2M2, Canada.

Abstract

COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60-80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12-29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

Keywords: COVID-19; infectious disease modelling; mathematical epidmiology; seroprevalence.

Abstract

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