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Center for Health Policy, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706.
The Confidence Profile Method is a new Bayesian method that can be used to assess technologies where the available evidence involves a variety of experimental designs, types of outcomes, and effect measures; a variety of biases; combinations of biases and nested bases; uncertainty about biases; an underlying variability in the parameter of interest; indirect evidence; and technology families. The result of an analysis with the Confidence Profile Method is a posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, posterior distributions for other parameters, and a covariance matrix for all the parameters in the model. The posterior distributions incorporate all the uncertainty the assessor chooses to describe about any of the parameters used in the analysis.
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