Table 3Adverse Event Probabilities

Adverse EventProbabilityDistributionDistributional ParametersSource
Probability of UTIs when incontinent0.93BetaSE =0.2Gamé 200813
Probability of UTIs with Mild incontinence0.28Betaα = 0.53b
β = 2.13
Gamé 200813
Probability of UTIs with Continence0.28Betaα = 0.53
β = 2.13
Gamé 200813
Probability of Haematuria with BTX0.04Betaα = 2
β = 36
Schurch 20051
Probability of bladder stones with AC0.019Betaα = 5
β = 68
Reyblat 200911
Probability of bowel obstruction with AC0.007Betaα = 2
β = 71
Reyblat 200911
Probability of perforation of augmented bladder with AC (Children)0.016Betaα = 43
β = 457
Metcalfe 200612
Probability of perforation of augmented bladder with AC (Adults) - Children value *1/40.004Assumption
Probability of Ileus with AC (one off with AC)0.047Betaα = 12
β = 61
Reyblat 200911
Probability of Re do surgery0.028Betaα = 15
β = 30
Assumption
b

α and β are the parameters used to define the beta distribution. These parameters can be derived in two ways: 1.) α refers to the number of events (or rate) and β refers to the number of people in the study minus the number of events. 2.) Derived using the method of moments, using mean and standard error.

α and β are the parameters used to define the beta distribution. These parameters can be derived in two ways: 1.) α refers to the number of events (or rate) and β refers to the number of people in the study minus the number of events. 2.) Derived using the method of moments, using mean and standard error.

From: Appendix I, Cost-effectiveness analysis – Botulinum toxin type A versus Augmentation Cystoplasty

Cover of Urinary Incontinence in Neurological Disease
Urinary Incontinence in Neurological Disease: Management of Lower Urinary Tract Dysfunction in Neurological Disease.
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 148.
National Clinical Guideline Centre (UK).
Copyright © 2012, National Clinical Guideline Centre.

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