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Risk Chart for Women

Find the line closest to your age and smoking status. The numbers in that row tell you how many out of 1,000 women in that group will die in the next 10 years from . . .

AgeSmoking StatusVascular DiseaseCancerInfectionLung DiseaseAccidentsAll Causes Combined
Heart AttackStrokeLungBreastColonOvarianCervicalPneumoniaFluAIDSCOPD
35 Never smoked111214
40Never smoked1211219
45Never smoked2113111225
50Never smoked411411237
55Never smoked822622111255
60Never smoked1443733112284
65Never smoked25758541233131
70Never smoked461479741454207
75Never smoked86307101051867335

Source: Steven Woloshin, Lisa Schwartz, and H. Gilbert Welch, “The Risk of Death by Age, Sex, and Smoking Status in the United States: Putting Health Risks in Context,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 100 (2008): 845–853.

Note: Shaded portions mean that the chance is less than 1 out of 1,000. People who have never smoked are defined as those who do not smoke now and who have smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime. Smokers are defined as people who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and who currently smoke (any amount). COPD is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. The numbers in the All Causes Combined column do not represent row totals because they include many other causes of death in addition to the ones listed in the chart.

From: Number Converter and Risk Charts

Cover of Know Your Chances
Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics.
Woloshin S, Schwartz LM, Welch HG.
Berkeley (CA): University of California Press; 2008.
Copyright © 2008, The Regents of the University of California.

Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics is hereby licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported license, which permits copying, distribution, and transmission of the work, provided the original work is properly cited, not used for commercial purposes, nor is altered or transformed.

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