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TABLE 17Recurrent model parameter estimates

ParameterRecurrent rectal modelRecurrent colon modelData source
Point estimateStandard errorProbabilistic distributionPoint estimateStandard errorProbabilistic distribution
Cancer prevalence (recurrence)
 Local recurrence0.30Dirichlet0.30DirichletSaunders et al. 2002123
 Metastatic recurrence0.40Dirichlet0.40DirichletSaunders et al. 2002123
 No recurrence0.30Dirichlet0.30DirichletSaunders et al. 2002123
 Recurrence curable0.300.10Beta0.300.10BetaLejeune et al. 200551
 Recurrence non-curable0.701 – above0.701 – aboveLejeune et al. 200551
Diagnostic test accuracy
 Contrast-enhanced CT sensitivity0.530.27Beta0.530.27BetaSelzner et al. 2004,87 Ramos et al. 200881
 Contrast-enhanced CT specificity0.980.02Beta0.980.02BetaSelzner et al. 2004,87 Ramos et al. 200881
 MRI sensitivity0.850.03BetaPark et al. 2001109
 MRI specificity0.950.08BetaPark et al. 2001109
 FDG PET/CT sensitivity0.930.10Beta0.930.10BetaSelzner et al. 2004,87 Ramos. et al. 200881
 FDG PET/CT specificity0.980.03Beta0.980.03BetaSelzner et al. 2004,87 Ramos et al. 200881
Treatments
 Surgery0.05Dirichlet0.05DirichletClinical expertise and various references: Maroun et al. 2003,102 Davey et al. 2008,89 Gearhart et al. 200649
 Surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy0.10Dirichlet0.10Dirichlet
 Long-course CRT plus surgery0.25Dirichlet
 Surgery plus metastatic surgery0.10Dirichlet0.10Dirichlet
 Surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy plus metastatic surgery0.15Dirichlet0.15Dirichlet
 Long-course CRT plus surgery plus metastatic surgery0.35Dirichlet
 Metastatic surgery followed by palliative care0.200.04Beta0.200.04BetaMSAC 200858
 Palliative care alone0.801 – above0.801 – aboveMSAC 200858
 Wait and watch1.001.00Author assumption
5-year overall survival
 No recurrence0.850.01Beta0.850.01BetaAmerican Cancer Society 2005119
 Recurrence curable0.300.02Beta0.300.02BetaAmerican Cancer Society 2005119
 Recurrence non-curable0.100.01Beta0.100.01BetaAmerican Cancer Society 2005119
 Recurrence curable (fail to treat)0.200.20Author assumption
Quality of life/utility
 No recurrence0.910.11Gamma (disutility)0.910.11Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Curable0.840.12Gamma (disutility)0.840.12Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Non-curable0.520.08Gamma (disutility)0.520.08Gamma (disutility)Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Disutility for patients who fail to receive curable treatment0.300.08Gamma0.300.08GammaAssumption based on Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Disutility for patients who fail to receive non-curable treatment0.200.08Gamma0.200.08GammaAssumption based on Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Utility during unnecessary curable treatment0.740.14Gamma (disutility)0.740.14Gamma (disutility)Assumption based on Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Utility during non-curable treatment0.610.20Gamma (disutility)0.610.20Gamma (disutility)Langenhoff et al. 2006117

MSAC, Medical Services Advisory Committee.

From: 10, Economic evaluation

Cover of The Value of FDG Positron Emission Tomography/Computerised Tomography (PET/CT) in Pre-Operative Staging of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation
The Value of FDG Positron Emission Tomography/Computerised Tomography (PET/CT) in Pre-Operative Staging of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation.
Health Technology Assessment, No. 15.35.
Brush J, Boyd K, Chappell F, et al.
Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2011 Sep.
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