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TABLE 15Primary CRC model parameter estimates

ParameterPrimary rectal modelPrimary colon modelData source
Point estimateStandard errorProbabilistic distributionPoint estimateStandard errorProbabilistic distribution
Cancer prevalence (AJCC stage)
 AJCC 1 (T1, T2, no nodes, no metastases)0.19n = 541aDirichlet0.19n = 541aDirichletClinical experts: Scottish CRC network data, February 2010. Further details in Tenesa et al. 2010145
 AJCC 2 (T3, T4, no nodes, no metastases)0.34n = 977aDirichlet0.34n = 977aDirichlet
 AJCC 3 (Any T, nodes, no metastases)0.31n = 891aDirichlet0.31n = 891aDirichlet
 AJCC 4 (Any T, nodes, metastases)0.15n = 429aDirichlet0.15n = 429aDirichlet
Diagnostic test accuracy
 Contrast-enhanced CT sensitivity0.550.06Beta0.550.06BetaBipat et al. 200439
 Contrast-enhanced CT specificity0.740.04Beta0.740.04BetaBipat et al. 200439
 MRI sensitivity0.660.06BetaBipat et al. 200439
 MRI specificity0.760.09BetaBipat et al. 200439
 FDG PET/CT sensitivity0.850.08Beta0.850.08BetaTateishi et al. 200754
 FDG PET/CT specificity0.420.10Beta0.420.10BetaTateishi et al. 200754
Treatments
 AJCC 1 – surgery1.00n = 541a1.00n = 541aClinical expertise and various references: Maroun et al. 2003,102 Davey et al. 2008,89 Gearhart et al. 200649
 AJCC 2 – surgery alone0.38n = 977aDirichlet0.80n = 977aDirichlet
 AJCC 2 – long-course CRT plus surgery0.46Dirichlet
 AJCC 2 – surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy0.15Dirichlet0.20Dirichlet
 AJCC 3 – surgery alone0.34n = 891aDirichlet0.34n = 891aDirichlet
 AJCC 3 – long-course CRT plus surgery0.37Dirichlet
 AJCC 3 – surgery plus adjuvant chemotherapy0.29Dirichlet0.66Dirichlet
 AJCC 4 – surgery alone0.08n = 429aDirichlet0.09n = 429aDirichlet
 AJCC 4 – long-course CRT plus surgery0.11Dirichlet
 AJCC 4 – surgery plus metastatic surgery0.16Dirichlet0.19Dirichlet
 AJCC 4 – surgery followed by palliative care0.53Dirichlet0.63Dirichlet
 AJCC 4 – palliative care alone0.13Dirichlet0.09Dirichlet
Overall survival
 5-year overall survival AJCC 10.950.01Beta0.950.01BetaClinical experts: Scottish CRC network data, February 2010. Further survival analysis details published in Tenesa et al. 2010145
 5-year overall survival AJCC 20.860.01Beta0.860.01Beta
 5-year overall survival AJCC 30.690.02Beta0.690.02Beta
 5-year overall survival AJCC 40.130.02Beta0.130.02Beta
 Reduction in 5-year overall survival for AJCC 3 patients who fail to receive adjuvant chemotherapy0.250.05Beta0.250.05BetaAssumption based on clinical advice
Quality of life/utility
 Average 5-year utility AJCC 10.840.17Gamma (disutility)0.840.17Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Average 5-year utility AJCC 20.860.14Gamma (disutility)0.860.14Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Average 5-year utility AJCC 30.850.14Gamma (disutility)0.850.14Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Average 5-year utility AJCC 40.840.12Gamma (disutility)0.840.12Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Disutility for patients who fail to receive CRT or adjuvant chemotherapy0.200.08Gamma0.200.08GammaAssumption based on Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Disutility for patients who fail to receive metastatic palliative care0.300.08Gamma0.300.08GammaAssumption based on Tengs and Wallace 2000146
 Utility during unnecessary long-course CRT0.740.14Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Utility during unnecessary adjuvant chemotherapy0.800.14Gamma (disutility)0.800.14Gamma (disutility)Ramsey et al. 2000142
 Utility for unnecessary metastatic surgery0.740.21Gamma (disutility)0.740.21Gamma (disutility)Langenhoff et al. 2006117
a

The number of patients in each AJCC stage from the Scottish data set sample of patients.145

The number of patients in each AJCC stage from the Scottish data set sample of patients.145

From: 10, Economic evaluation

Cover of The Value of FDG Positron Emission Tomography/Computerised Tomography (PET/CT) in Pre-Operative Staging of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation
The Value of FDG Positron Emission Tomography/Computerised Tomography (PET/CT) in Pre-Operative Staging of Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation.
Health Technology Assessment, No. 15.35.
Brush J, Boyd K, Chappell F, et al.
© 2011, Crown Copyright.

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