Table A1.16Parameters varied in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis

ParameterDeterministic valueDistribution assignedSource
Diagnostic test false positive/negative result0.88Havrilesky. et al., 2009
Stable – advanced disease0.63BetaGrann et al., 1998
Advanced (undergoing chemotherapy)0.55BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009
Advanced (undergoing chemotherapy with toxicity)0.49BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009
Early (chemotherapy)0.81BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009
Early (recurrence)0.47BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009)
Early (remission)0.83BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009
Surgery0.68BetaGrann et al., 1998
Colorectal cancer – Dukes A0.74BetaTappenden et al., 2007
Colorectal cancer – Dukes B0.70BetaTappenden et al., 2007
Colorectal cancer – Dukes C0.50BetaTappenden et al., 2007
Colorectal cancer – Dukes D0.25BetaTappenden et al., 2007
Supportive care0.16BetaHavrilesky. et al., 2009
Transition probability
tpAdv_Dead0.203BetaBagnall et al., 2002
tpRem_RecAdv0.11BetaSwart et al., 2007
tpCRC_A_B0.58DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_A_Death0DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_B_C0.66DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_B_Death0.01DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_C_D0.87DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_C_Death0.06DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
tpCRC_D_Death0.39DirichletTappenden et al., 2007
Proportions and rates
Prior – disease prevalence0.2529BetaHamilton et al., 2009
Rate of toxicity (alopecia in advanced stage)0.73BetaBagnall et al., 2002
Rate of mortality (early) – post surgery0.01BetaVenesmaa et al. 1992
Rate of mortality (advanced) - post surgery0.03BetaGerestein et al., 2009
Rate of mortality (benign) – post surgery0.0016BetaLoft et al., 1991
Rate of morbidity (early) – post surgery0.05BetaGDG consensus
Rate of morbidity (advanced) - post surgery0.13BetaGDG consensus
Rate of morbidity (benign) – post surgery0.05BetaChien et al., 1991
Proportion of patients with disease confined to the ovaries (undergoing treatment)0.5BetaGDG consensus
Proportion of patients in whom ovarian cancer is detected (following secondary care test)(0.35; 0.60; 0.05)DirichletGDG consensus
Proportion of patients with disease not confined to the ovaries (undergoing treatment)(0.85; 0.1; 0.05)DirichletGDG consensus
Proportion of patients with benign gynaecological problem0.85BetaGDG consensus
Proportion of patients with colorectal cancer0.15BetaGDG consensus
Proportion of Dukes A-D(0.13; 0.37; 0.36; 0.14)DirichletTappenden et al., 2007

From: Appendix 1, A cost-utility analysis of diagnostic investigations in primary care for women with symptoms of ovarian cancer

Cover of Ovarian Cancer
Ovarian Cancer: The Recognition and Initial Management of Ovarian Cancer.
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 122.
National Collaborating Centre for Cancer (UK).
Copyright © 2011, National Collaborating Centre for Cancer.

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