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Table 16.9input parameters, type of distribution and distribution parameters used in probabilistic sensitivity analysis

ParameterType of distributionPoint estimateDistribution parametersSource
Baseline Risk
Complete recoveryBeta17.2%α = 5, β = 24Hu 2006
Absolute Risk
NH admission or death in patients with complete recoveryBeta67.7%α = 21, β = 10
NH admission or death in patients with delirium at dischargeBeta85.9%α = 9, β = 1
NH admission only in patients with complete recoveryDirichlet61.9%α = 13McAvay 2006
Death only in patients with complete recovery33.3%α = 7
NH admission and death in patients with complete recovery4.8%α = 1
NH admission only in patients with delirium at discharge55.0%α = 11
Death only in patients with delirium at discharge5.0%α = 1
NH admission and death in patients with delirium at discharge40.0%α = 8
Post-discharge survival
Difference in mortality between delirious and non-delirious patientsLognormalHR = 1.71Log (mean) = 0.54, SE= 0.26Rockwood 1999
Cost
Stay in long-term careGamma£656Mean = £656, SE* = £84PSSRU 2007
HaloperidolGamma£0.73Mean = £0.73, SE*= £0.09BNF 57
OlanzapineGamma£5.94Mean = £5.94, SE*= £0.76BNF 57
Utility
Stay in institutionBeta0.25α = 293, β = 880Ekman 2007
Population utilityMultinormialLinear relationship with ageAge-Utility intercept: 1.06; Age-Utility gradient: −0.00Based on a re-analysis of data from Kind 1998 in Ward 2007
Efficacy of treatment interventions
HaloperidolLognormal3.95Log (mean) = 1.37, SE= 0.41Hu 2006
OlanzapineLognormal3.68Log (mean) = 1.30, SE= 0.42
*

Assumed that upper and lower confidence intervals will be 125% and 75% of the mean estimate respectively.

Assumed that upper and lower confidence intervals will be 125% and 75% of the mean estimate respectively.

From: 16, Health economic models: cost-effectiveness analyses of delirium prevention and pharmacological treatment

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Delirium: Diagnosis, Prevention and Management [Internet].
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