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Dubbo

Derivation of prognostic modelSimons et al. 200339
Location & dateDubbo, New South Wales, Australia 1988
Population characteristicsAge 60–79
N=2102
41% Male
Observational prospective community cohort
5 and 10 year follow up
Inclusion, co-morbidityMen and women free of previous CVD born before 1930
Includes diabetics
Risk factorsAge
Sex
Cholesterol (fasting)
HDL cholesterol (fasting)
Systolic blood pressure
Use of antihypertensives
Smoking habit
Diabetes
OutcomeCVD (MI, coronary death, stroke)
Prediction period5 and 10 years
Statistical methodsMultiple logistic model
Practical
Authors notesRisk function appropriate for elderly Australians includes risk factors readily accessible to medical practitioners
Modifications, tools or guidelines
External validation
Convergent validation
Trials of health outcomes

From: Appendix 3, Prognostic models or risk scoring methods for use in targeting primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (part completed)

Cover of A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement)
A Systematic Review of Risk Scoring Methods and Clinical Decision Aids Used in the Primary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (Supplement) [Internet].
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 67S.
Beswick AD, Brindle P, Fahey T, et al.
Copyright © 2008, Royal College of General Practitioners.

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