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Table 7Baseline annual transition probabilities acute coronary syndrome patients following MI

45+ yrs55+ yrs65+ yrs75+ yrsOver 85 yrs
MI to MI0.02330.02400.02870.04240.0424
MI to Stroke0.00250.00290.00520.00870.0087
MI to heart failure0.00110.00500.01760.04530.0453
MI to revascularisation0.04140.04140.04770.02010.0038
MI to unstable angina0.00300.00950.01930.02620.0262
MI to cardiovascular death0.00440.00600.01290.02630.0263
Subsequent years From Post MI to
45.000055.000065.000075.000085.0000
MI to MI0.03580.03680.04400.06510.0651
MI to Stroke0.00370.00440.00790.01310.0131
MI to, transient ischemic attack0.00000.00000.00000.00000.0000
MI to peripheral artery disease0.00000.00000.00000.00000.0000
MI to heart failure0.00160.00760.02670.06890.0689
MI to revascularizations0.06440.06440.07420.03120.0059
MI to unstable angina0.00450.01450.02930.03990.0399
MI to cardiovascular death0.00660.00910.01950.03980.0398

Source: Meta-analysis of A to Z (de Lemos, J. A., Blazing, M. A., Wiviott, S. D. et al, 2004), and PROVE-IT (Cannon, C. P., Braunwald, E., McCabe, C. H. et al, 2004) Kaplan et al (Kaplan RC, Heckbert SR Furberg CD Psaty BM., 2002) estimated that 40% of events occur in year 1 after MI, we applied this factor

From: Appendix C, Health Economic Modelling

Cover of Lipid Modification
Lipid Modification: Cardiovascular Risk Assessment and the Modification of Blood Lipids for the Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease [Internet].
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 67.
National Collaborating Centre for Primary Care (UK).
Copyright © 2008, Royal College of General Practitioners.

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