Table 22Study information and data on the HCR-20

StudyPopulation/settingFollow-upOutcomeResultQuality
Coid et al., 2007N = 1396 (1353 prisoners released)

Gender: all male

Setting: prisoner cohort, UK
6 days – 2.91 years (M = 1.97 years)Serious re-offendingAny: AUC = 0.630 (p < 0.001)

Drug: AUC = 0.577 (p < 0.01)

Theft: AUC = 0.667 (p < 0.001)

Robbery: AUC = 0.565 (ns)

Violence: AUCs = 0.638 (p < 0.001)
+
Dahle, 2006N = 307

Mean age at baseline: 30 years (SD = 5.35)

Gender: all male

Setting: German prisons
10 yearsCriminal convictionsReimprisonment 5 years post-release: AUC = 0.70, SD = 0.03
Moderately predictive

Reimprisonment 10 years post-release: AUC = 0.71, SD = 0.03
++
Grann et al., 2000 (only 10 history items used – with some modification)Personality disorder: N = 358 (also schizophrenia: N = 202)

Age: 32 years

Gender: 322 men, 36 women

Setting: retrospective follow-up of violent offenders receiving forensic psychiatric evaluation, Sweden
2 years post-release (retrospecttive)Violent crimePersonality disorder only: AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76)

Cut-off 12: sensitivity = 0.72, specificity = 0.60, PPV = 0.38, NPV = 0.86
+
Morrissey et al., 2007N = 73 (60 patients remained in institution at 12-month follow-up)

Gender: all male

Age: 43–76 (M = 38; SD = 8.9)

Setting: high security forensic intellectual disability service, England and Wales

Learning disability

Diagnosis: 81% mental retardation, 54.8% personality disorder, 28.8% psychotic disorder, 8% mood disorder (including dual diagnosis)
12 monthsInstitutional aggressionInterpersonal physical aggression: AUC = 0.68 (0.56–0.81; p < 0.05)

Verbal and property aggression: AUC = 0.77 (0.64–0.88; p < 0.01)
+
Warren et al., 2005N = 132 (completers – 261 at baseline)

Gender: all female

Age: 60.3% under 32

39.67% over 32

Setting: maximum security prisons, US
12 monthsCriminal convictionsHigh correlation with PCL-R (r =.80, p < .01)

Did not predict violent crime:

Violent crime – AUC = 0.49 (0.38, 0.59)

Potentially violent crime – AUC = 0.60 (0.49, 0.72)

Crimes against persons – AUC = 0.46 (0.36, 0.56)

But predicted non-violent crime: AUC = 0.68 (0.56, 0.80)
+

From: 6, RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

Cover of Antisocial Personality Disorder
Antisocial Personality Disorder: Treatment, Management and Prevention.
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 77.
National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health (UK).
Leicester (UK): British Psychological Society; 2010.
Copyright © 2010, The British Psychological Society & The Royal College of Psychiatrists.

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