Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Apr 17;8(4):e2798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002798. eCollection 2014.

El Niño Southern Oscillation and leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia.

Author information

  • 1Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
  • 2Institut Pasteur, Institut Pasteur International Network, Noumea, New Caledonia.
  • 3Direction des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales de la Nouvelle-Calédonie, Noumea, New Caledonia.
  • 4Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America; Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America; Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.

Abstract

Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.

PMID:
24743322
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PMCID:
PMC3990495
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Public Library of Science Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk