Format

Send to:

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Vaccine. 2012 Jan 11;30(3):552-64. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.11.064. Epub 2011 Nov 28.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination on epidemiological dynamics in England and Wales.

Author information

  • 1Yale School of Public Health, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. katherine.atkins@yale.edu

Abstract

Rotavirus infection causes severe gastroenteritis (RVGE) in children worldwide. Its disease burden has been reduced in countries where mass vaccination programs have been introduced. However, England and Wales have not yet implemented such a mass vaccination program. This paper uses a dynamic model to predict the effect of a mass vaccination program in England and Wales beginning in the fall of 2011. The dynamic model is parameterized with country-specific data for the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine. We report the impact of vaccination, in both the short- and long-term, on disease incidence reduction, timing of seasonal epidemics and the level of herd protection. Our results predict that vaccination can reduce the burden of severe RVGE by 70% and delay the rotavirus epidemic peak by two and a half months with a coverage of 95%. Our calculations further show that herd protection accounts for about a quarter of the reduction in RVGE incidence. If vaccine-induced protection does not wane over three years, severe RVGE in children under five years of age could be eliminated within two years after the introduction of vaccination. This work lays the foundation for policy-makers to determine the impact of a mass vaccination program against rotavirus in England and Wales.

Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PMID:
22133508
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Elsevier Science
    Loading ...
    Write to the Help Desk