An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer

Brittany S Barker; Leonard Coop; Jian J Duan; Toby R Petrice

doi:10.3389/finsc.2023.1239173

An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer

Front Insect Sci. 2023 Aug 29:3:1239173. doi: 10.3389/finsc.2023.1239173. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Brittany S Barker^{1

2}, Leonard Coop^{1

2}, Jian J Duan³, Toby R Petrice⁴

Affiliations

¹ Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States.
² Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States.
³ United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service, Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit, Newark, DE, United States.
⁴ United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Lansing, MI, United States.

Abstract

Introduction: Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.

Methods: We evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.

Results: Overall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native Fraxinus species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.

Discussion: Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.

Keywords: Agrilus planipennis; Fraxinus; forecast; invasive species; management; surveillance; thermal stresses.

Grants and funding

This work was funded by the USDA NIFA AFRI grant no. 2022-68013-37138 to LC and BB (https://www.nifa.usda.gov/grants/programs/agriculture-food-research-initiative-afri), the USDA NIFA CPPM Extension Implementation Program grant no. 2021-70006-35581 to LC, and the USDA APHIS PPQ Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) grant no. AP18PPQHQ000C009 (Cooperative Agreement) to LC (https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/).