A natural experiment of the consequences of concentrating former prisoners in the same neighborhoods

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jun 2;112(22):6943-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1501987112. Epub 2015 May 14.

Abstract

More than 600,000 prisoners are released from incarceration each year in the United States, and most end up residing in metropolitan areas, clustered within a select few neighborhoods. Likely consequences of this concentration of returning prisoners include higher rates of subsequent crime and recidivism. In fact, one-half of released prisoners return to prison within only 3 y of release. The routine exposure to criminogenic influences and criminal opportunities portends a bleak future for individuals who reside in neighborhoods with numerous other ex-prisoners. Through a natural experiment focused on post-Hurricane Katrina Louisiana, I examine a counterfactual scenario: If instead of concentrating ex-prisoners in geographic space, what would happen to recidivism rates if ex-prisoners were dispersed across space? Findings reveal that a decrease in the concentration of parolees in a neighborhood leads to a significant decrease in the reincarceration rate of former prisoners.

Keywords: Hurricane Katrina; natural experiment; neighborhood effects; prisoners; recidivism.

MeSH terms

  • Crime / prevention & control*
  • Crime / psychology*
  • Crime / statistics & numerical data
  • Cyclonic Storms
  • Demography / statistics & numerical data*
  • Geography
  • Humans
  • Population Dynamics
  • Prisoners / psychology*
  • Prisoners / statistics & numerical data
  • Public Policy
  • Residence Characteristics
  • United States