The mismatch negativity (MMN) increases in amplitude as the probability of deviant occurrence decreases. It is unclear whether the determining variable is sequential probability (i.e. the probability of a deviant within a number of standards) or temporal probability (i.e. the probability of a deviant within a period of time). Eight subjects heard a train of frequently occurring 1000 Hz standard tones. The probability of a 1100 Hz pitch deviant was manipulated. In one condition the stimulus-onset-asynchrony (SOA) was 150 ms, with temporal probability of deviant occurrence being either 1/9.00, 1/4.50, 1/2.25, or 1/1.125 s (sequential probability being 1/60, 1/30, 1/15, or 1(deviant)/7.5(standards), respectively). In another condition the SOA was 600 ms, with temporal probability being either 1/9.00, 1/4.50, or 1/2.25 s (sequential probability being 1/15, 1/7.5, or 1/3.75, respectively). In a final condition, the SOA was 2400 ms with temporal probability being 1/9.00 s (sequential probability 1/3.75). Both sequential and temporal probabilities had a marked effect on the MMN. When a deviant occurred every 2.25, 4.50, or 9.00 s, the MMN increased as temporal probability decreased. When a deviant occurred once every 7.5 or 15 standards, the MMN was larger for lower sequential probability, but the effect was not significant. Nevertheless, when temporal probability was held constant at 1/9.00 s, the MMN increased as sequential probability decreased. At rapid rates of stimulus presentation, the MMN was largest. However, it was attenuated when the probability of deviant occurrence was very high perhaps due to the refractoriness of its generator. At the slowest rate, the MMN was diminished perhaps due to memory decay for the standard stimuli.