Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998 Oct 27;95(22):12753-8.

Climate forcings in the industrial era.

Hansen JE, Sato M, Lacis A, Ruedy R, Tegen I, Matthews E.

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA. jhansen@giss.nasa.gov

Abstract

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

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PMCID:: PMC33912

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