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Department of Political Science, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8301, USA. donald.green@yale.edu
Trends in bigoted violence are often explained by reference to frustrations arising from macroeconomic downturns. Historical and recent time-series studies have turned up significant links between economic conditions and lynchings of Blacks in the pre-Depression South (e.g., Hepworth & West, 1988; Hovland & Sears, 1940). However, replicating the time-series analyses of lynching, extending them through the Great Depression, and applying similar techniques to contemporary data fail to provide robust evidence of a link between economic performance and intolerant behavior directed against minorities. The authors speculate that the predictive force of macroeconomic fluctuation is undermined by the rapid rate of decay in the frustration-bred aggressive impulse and the absence of prominent political actors affixing economic blame on target groups.
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