The risk of disease progression is determined during the first year of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection

J Infect Dis. 1998 Jun;177(6):1541-8. doi: 10.1086/515308.

Abstract

A cohort of 103 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected persons with well-defined dates of seroconversion were studied to determine whether baseline plasma HIV RNA loads 6-12 months after seroconversion have prognostic value. Baseline plasma virus loads had predictive value for the disease-free survival rate and for the survival rate. The level of baseline HIV RNA also had a strong negative predictive value for the CD4+ T cell count during the fifth year of infection: A baseline load >5 log was predictive of a CD4+ T cell count <500/mm3 5 years after infection. Baseline HIV RNA load was a CD4+ T cell-independent predictor of progression to death. The major finding was that the disease outcome for HIV-1-infected persons is already determined during the first year of infection.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • CD4 Lymphocyte Count
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • HIV Infections / immunology
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • HIV Infections / physiopathology*
  • HIV Infections / virology
  • HIV-1* / genetics
  • Humans
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • RNA, Viral / blood
  • Risk Factors
  • Survivors
  • Time Factors
  • Viral Load*

Substances

  • RNA, Viral