Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the future course of mesothelioma mortality as a result of occupational exposure to asbestos in the past.

DESIGN:

Cohort age model.

SETTING:

Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

METHODS:

A cohort age model was developed, based upon age-specific rates of pleural mesothelioma mortality during 1969-1994. This model was linked to the future trend in mortality among Dutch men as projected by the Central Bureau for Statistics in order to predict the future course of mesothelioma mortality in the period 1995-2030.

RESULTS:

In the next 35 years about 20,000 cases of pleural mesothelioma among men are expected. The projection results in a peak of annual male mesothelioma deaths of approximately 700 in about the year 2018. After 2020 the annual mortality will rapidly decline to about 450 cases in 2030. It is expected that this rapid decline will continue after 2030. In the 1943-1947 birth cohort pleural mesothelioma may account for 0.87% of all deaths. Exposure to asbestos at work largely explains this particular mortality pattern.

CONCLUSION:

Exposure to asbestos at work has created an important public health problem among Dutch men.