To prevent mother-to-child human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission, it is important to identify its determinants. Because HIV-1 RNA levels can be reduced by antiviral therapy, we examined the role of maternal plasma HIV-1 RNA level in mother-to-child transmission. We used quantitative competitive PCR to measure HIV-RNA in 30 infected pregnant women and then followed their infants prospectively; 27% of the women transmitted HIV-1 to their infants and maternal plasma HIV-1 RNA level correlated strikingly with transmission. Eight of the 10 women with the highest HIV-1 RNA levels at delivery (190,400-1,664,100 copies per ml of plasma) transmitted, while none of the 20 women with lower levels (500-155,800 copies per ml) did (P = 0.0002). Statistical analysis of the distribution of HIV-1 RNA loads in these 30 women projected a threshold for mother-to-child transmission in a larger population; the probability of a woman with a viral RNA level of < or = 100,000 copies per ml not transmitting is predicted to be 97%. Examination of serial HIV-1 RNA levels during pregnancy showed that viral load was stable in women who did not initiate or change antiviral therapy. These data identify maternal plasma HIV-1-RNA level as a major determinant of mother-to-child transmission and suggest that quantitation of HIV-1 RNA may predict the risk of transmission.