To determine what factors contribute to and change bone mineral density (BMD) in dialysis patients, serial lumbar spine dual x-ray absorptiometry studies were analyzed by stepwise regression analysis in 67 black dialysis patients. The patients were 50.5 +/- 2.0 years of age (mean +/- SE) and 49% were men; the patients had received dialytic therapy for 3.7 +/- 0.5 years. The mean initial BMD z-score was 0.147 +/- 0.182. By cross-sectional analysis, the BMD increased in the male and premenopausal female patients but decreased in the postmenopausal female patients by 2.5% g/cm2/decade of life, less than that observed in black patients with normal renal function. Univariate analysis and stepwise regression analysis demonstrated radiographic evidence of osteopenia (beta-coefficient = -0.180 +/- 0.050; P = 0.001) and prior parathyroidectomy (beta-coefficient = 0.133 +/- 0.070; P = 0.054) as the only variables significantly correlated to the BMD. The effects of biochemical variables and different treatments on the delta BMD, calculated as the difference between each patient's first and second BMDs divided by the interval in years, were evaluated by stepwise regression analysis in 41 patients. The mean interval between the two BMDs was 18.4 +/- 1.02 months (range, 5 to 34 months) and the delta BMD was 0.025 +/- 0.018 g/cm2/yr, increasing in 65% of the patients. By univariate and stepwise regression analysis, the mean monthly serum total alkaline phosphatase concentration was the only variable that correlated with the delta BMD (beta-coefficient = 0.0001; P = 0.030).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)