Many evaluations of soft tissue changes after orthognathic surgery have been undertaken, and many correlations of soft tissue to hard tissue movements have been established. These studies have not, however, specifically discussed the long-term stability or characteristics of the soft tissue changes. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the long term stability of soft tissue changes 5 years after LeFort I osteotomy, (2) to determine reliable correlations, if any, of soft tissue changes to bony movements effected in surgery, and (3) to determine the predictability of soft tissue changes as an aid to orthodontic treatment planning. Cephalometric data from 25 patients who were treated with LeFort I osteotomy with or without a concurrent mandibular procedure were analyzed retrospectively. Cases were selected from the patient records of the Department of Oral Surgery of the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. These patients were followed up at four time points, the last being a mean of 6.1 years after surgery. Analysis of stability data revealed that most horizontal and vertical soft tissue change after LeFort I surgery occurred in the first year after surgery. Significant (> 10%) change continued to occur for subnasale, labrale inferius, upper lip protrusion, lower lip protrusion, and soft tissue convexity during the subsequent 5 years. Hard tissue to soft tissue correlations were calculated and ratios of soft tissue to hard tissue movement were determined for appropriate hard and soft tissue landmarks at four time intervals. Reliable correlations of hard tissue change at surgery to 5-year soft tissue change could be made for 10 variables, which was considerably less frequently than for 1-year soft tissue change. The relatively low reliability of long-term prediction correlations suggests that soft tissue movements may be more independent of hard tissue over time. One-year prediction values were similar to 5-year values and thus could be used for prediction purposes in orthodontic treatment planning. Most short-term hard to soft tissue correlations found in the present study were in the range of those established by previous authors. Long-term hard tissue to soft tissue correlations gave higher ratios of soft tissue movement secondary to maxillary surgery, approaching ratios of 1.0:1.0 for some variables. This finding, as well as the long-term stability data, suggest that soft tissue settling or equilibrium after surgery may take several years to complete.