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Fertil Steril. 1995 Jul;64(1):22-8.

The prognosis for live birth among untreated infertile couples.

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  • 1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the likelihood of live birth and the impact of prognostic factors among untreated infertile couples.

DESIGN:

Cohort follow-up study.

SETTING:

Eleven infertility clinics in academic medical centers.

PATIENTS:

Two thousand one hundred ninety-eight couples with infertility of > 1 year in duration. Untreated months of observations on 873 untreated couples (18,364 months) were combined with observations before the first treatment among 1,325 treated couples (9,761 months).

INTERVENTIONS:

Diagnostic tests as indicated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Time to conception for live birth; effect of baseline characteristics estimated by means of proportional hazards analysis.

RESULTS:

There were 263 live birth conceptions during 28,125 months of untreated observations. The cumulative rate of conceptions leading to live birth was 14.3% at 12 months. The relevant prognostic factors were pregnancy history, duration of infertility, female partner's age, male defect, endometriosis, and tubal disease. A prediction score based on these factors would be accurate in approximately 62% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS:

The estimation of live birth among untreated infertile couples is sufficiently accurate to be useful in the clinical management of infertility and in the planning of clinical trials.

PMID:
7789569
[PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
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