Serum HIV-1 RNA and p24 antigen levels were examined in 28 seropositive asymptomatic individuals participating in a trial on the efficacy of zidovudine. Sixteen individuals remained asymptomatic until 4 years after the onset of the trial, whereas 12 individuals were diagnosed with an AIDS-defining event. The serum HIV-1 RNA load and p24 antigen levels were determined before the onset of therapy and during the first 8 weeks of therapy to establish whether the patterns of change were predictive of clinical outcome. Among the 28 participants 43% had measurable pretreatment concentrations of p24 antigen. Initiation of zidovudine therapy was followed by a similar decline of p24 antigen levels in nonprogressors as well as progressors and, therefore, these groups could not be distinguished on the basis of this parameter. HIV-1 RNA was detected in the pretreatment samples of 82% of the individuals and could be detected in p24 antigen-positive as well as p24 antigen-negative individuals. Similar changes in HIV-1 RNA load during zidovudine therapy were observed in p24 antigen-positive and -negative individuals. Analysis of the HIV-1 RNA response according to clinical outcome demonstrated that HIV-1 RNA copy numbers had declined significantly after 4 weeks of therapy in both nonprogressors and progressors, but the decline in RNA load was much stronger in the nonprogressors. Our data show that the HIV-1 RNA load in serum can be used to monitor the response to antiviral therapy in p24 antigen-positive as well as -negative individuals. Posttreatment changes in p24 antigen levels are not indicative for clinical outcome, whereas RNA copy numbers are.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)