In a 5-12 year follow-up study of 288 subjects with impaired glucose tolerance after a 100-g glucose load, 48 worsened to overt Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes with the elevation of fasting blood glucose. The initial level of blood glucose was a major predictor of subsequent worsening to diabetes. In addition, subjects with a lower insulin response to glucose showed a higher incidence of worsening to the disease, irrespective of blood glucose levels. Multivariate analysis indicated that a diminished insulin response and a high maximal body weight index, as well as a high level of fasting and 2-h glucose values at the initial 100-g oral glucose tolerance test were significant independent risk factors for the development of diabetes in Japanese subjects.