Variances in Smoking Expectancies Predict Moment-to-Moment Smoking Behaviors in Everyday Life

Background: Many policy decisions about tobacco control are predicated on rational choice models, which posit (1) that smokers are aware of the risks of cigarettes and (2) that perceived risks have a consistent influence on continued smoking behavior. However, research shows that beliefs about smoking may be vulnerable to changes in internal and external contexts.

Methods: Using ecological momentary assessment, we tested this by measuring how smokers' (N = 52) beliefs about smoking varied over time. Four times per day over 1 week, participants responded to measures of smoking intentions, risk perceptions, mood and social outcome expectancies, and internal and external contextual factors.

Results: We analyzed this data using multilevel modeling, finding that both smoking intentions, risk perceptions, and expectancies differed between participants as well as between moments.

Conclusion: Risk perceptions and mood expectancies were a significant predictor of intentions to smoke in the next 30 min, illustrating the importance of these beliefs in decisional processes. This study was preregistered at the Open Science Foundation: https://osf.io/wmv3s/?view_only=71ad66d3ce3845fcb3bf2b9860d820c9 . Our analytic plan was not preregistered.