The environmental and socioeconomic effects of tuberculosis patients in the southwest of China: a population-based study

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and find the risk factors of TB patients with a high burden of TB in socioeconomic level, the high level of TB incidence and the great changes of economic and social factors, explore the possible factors, construct scientific and robust prediction model, and analyse whether the task of stopping TB can be accomplished by the expected global deadline.

Study design: This was an ecological study.

Methods: Descriptive analysis, spatial and space-time scan, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were carried out, based on cases of TB in Sichuan Province and ecological data from 2006 to 2017, to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors, using the transfer function-noise model to forecast the trend of TB until 2035.

Results: Factors affecting the incidence of TB, increasing per capita green area, reporting status of TB among Tibetans and Yi minorities, comprehensive treatment management, total cost of TB per capita for urban residents, proportion of males with high school education, 20 to 20 h of 24-h accumulated precipitation, reducing HIV at the same time as AIDS deaths, the increase in the proportion of males in junior high school education, and the increase in the number of registered TB cases can reduce the incidence of TB.

Conclusions: There was concentration mainly on enhanced control of the environment and society measures, helpful in guiding government planning to control TB. Reinforcement is required to reduce the TB of population aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 in socioeconomic level by 2035.