A comparison of timing and patterns of treatment failure, and survival outcomes after progression between HPV+ and HPV- patients undergoing chemoradiation for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas

Background: We aimed to analyze and compare the timing and patterns of treatment failure, and survival after progression between HPV-positive (HPV+) and HPV-negative (HPV-) patients undergoing chemoradiation for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC).

Methods: A retrospective review was performed of all patients undergoing primary chemoradiation for OPSCC between 2008 and 2021. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Kaplan-Meier estimates for overall survival (OS), and time to recurrence/metastases (TTR) were compared using the log-rank test, with Cox regression used for multivariable modeling comparing HPV+ and HPV- patients.

Results: HPV- patients developed recurrence or metastases at earlier time points than HPV+ patients (8.8 vs. 15.2 months, p < 0.05), due to earlier local/locoregional recurrence and distant metastases, but not isolated regional recurrences. HPV- distant metastases exclusively occurred in a single organ, most commonly the lungs or bone, while HPV+ metastases frequently had multi-organ involvement in a wide variety of locations (p < 0.05). Once progression (recurrence/metastases) was diagnosed, HPV+ patients experienced superior survival to HPV- patients on univariate and multivariate analysis, largely due to improved outcomes after treatment of local/locoregional recurrences (p < 0.05). There were no differences in survival after isolated regional recurrences or distant metastases.

Conclusion: HPV+ OPSCC patients relapse later compared to HPV- patients in local/locoregional and distant sites. HPV+ patients with local/locoregional recurrence experience superior survival after recurrence, which does not hold true for isolated regional recurrences or distant metastases. These data can be useful to inform prognosis and guide treatment decisions in patients with recurrent OPSCC.