Social and Behavior Factors of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: A National Study in the U.S

Introduction: Considerable research has linked many risk factors to Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD). Without a clear etiology of ADRD, it is advantageous to rank the known risk factors by their importance and determine if disparities exist. Statistical-based ranking can provide insight into which risk factors should be further evaluated.

Methods: This observational, population-based study assessed 50 county-level measures and estimates related to ADRD in 3,155 counties in the U.S. using data from 2010 to 2021. Statistical analysis was performed in 2022-2023. The machine learning method, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, was utilized to rank the importance of these variables by their relative contribution to the model performance. Stratified ranking was also performed based on a county's level of disadvantage. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided marginal contributions for each variable.

Results: The top three ranked predictors at the county level were insufficient sleep, consuming less than one serving of fruits/vegetables per day among adults, and having less than a high school diploma. In both disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged counties, demographic variables such as sex and race were important in predicting ADRD. Lifestyle factors ranked highly in non-disadvantaged counties compared to more environmental factors in disadvantaged counties.

Conclusions: This ranked list of factors can provide a guided approach to ADRD primary prevention strategies in the U.S., as the effects of sleep, diet, and education on ADRD can be further developed. While sleep, diet, and education are important nationally, differing prevention strategies could be employed based on a county's level of disadvantage.